Part of: Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?

This prediction market tracks whether officially acknowledged foreign police, military, peacekeeping, or security personnel will physically enter Gaza by August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Current Yes/No odds and smart money signals are available on PolySpotter; the latest tracked alert shows a profitable serial trader adding to No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify. Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify. Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,034.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Gaza, Israel, Middle East, World

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader adds to No

A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader is adding $3,034 to an existing No position in a thin market, though the historical win rate does not clearly exceed the average winning entry price.

  • This bettor has 383 resolved trades, a 74% win rate, and $73,023 in lifetime profit.
  • They added $3,034 to an existing No position in a thin market with only about $14,300 total volume.
  • The No position was increased at 77¢ despite recent movement toward Yes, signaling continued conviction.

$3,034 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe54b...aa14 No, $6,411 (81% win rate)
  2. 0x9a3f...914a Yes, $5,771 (59% win rate)
  3. 0x0787...0ca3 Yes, $5,113 (60% win rate)
  4. 0x54a7...881b No, $4,518 (93% win rate)
  5. 0x43cf...88fa Yes, $4,119 (64% win rate)
  6. 0x47ff...7ccb Yes, $3,533 (24% win rate)
  7. 0xc3db...0f98 No, $2,245 (45% win rate)
  8. 0xcd8f...4dc1 No, $1,621 (94% win rate)
  9. 0x66a1...80d9 Yes, $1,600
  10. 0xd34b...0004 No, $1,550 (95% win rate)

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Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?

6dForeign intervention in Gaza by..?$3,034 tracked1 signalPoliticsGeopoliticsGazaIsraelMiddle EastWorld
Yes
1¢
No
99¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify. Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify. Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
101¢
99¢
96¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?

23d ago

$3,034 on No at 77¢

77¢99¢22¢

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