Part of: Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?

This prediction market asks whether non-Israeli and non-Palestinian police, security, military, or peacekeeping personnel will officially begin an operation on the ground in Gaza by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Recent smart-money activity favors No, with tracked signals showing a 92% winner adding to the No position; the market resolves on September 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify. Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify. Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,643.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Gaza, Israel, Middle East, World

Notable Trades

92% winner adds to No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader added nearly $2,000 to an existing No position in a thin market despite the price moving against it.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 72 resolved trades and is up $26,425 lifetime.
  • They added $1,971 to No, representing 61% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
  • The market moved sharply toward Yes, yet this bettor increased their No position in a wide-spread market.

$2,672 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

92% winner adds to No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader added nearly $2,000 to an existing No position in a thin market despite the price moving against it.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 72 resolved trades and is up $26,425 lifetime.
  • They added $1,971 to No, representing 61% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
  • The market moved sharply toward Yes, yet this bettor increased their No position in a wide-spread market.

$1,971 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbaa2...2c73 Yes, $8,425 (64% win rate)
  2. 0xe0a5...f6a4 No, $6,824 (80% win rate)
  3. 0x43cf...88fa Yes, $6,291 (64% win rate)
  4. 0x2779...239a Yes, $5,681 (78% win rate)
  5. 0x60a9...5a71 No, $5,302 (49% win rate)
  6. 0xe54b...aa14 No, $5,135 (81% win rate)
  7. 0xf1ef...8cd6 Yes, $3,000 (55% win rate)
  8. 0x9d82...bfe0 No, $2,480 (100% win rate)
  9. 0xe27c...51db No, $2,193 (49% win rate)
  10. 0xdf17...97d1 Yes, $1,760 (56% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement Delayed Past September

Covers 4 related markets

IAEA won’t visit Iranian nuclear sites

Covers 1 related market

Iranian blockade will persist

Covers 2 related markets

US-Iran ceasefire holds by July 31

Covers 1 related market

Phase II ceasefire won’t happen

Covers 2 related markets

Foreign intervention in Gaza soon

Covers 1 related market

Houthis will hit shipping

Covers 1 related market

Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s leader

Covers 2 related markets

Houthis avoid Saudi attacks

Covers 1 related market

Ceasefire holds through mid-August

Covers 6 related markets

Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?

36dForeign intervention in Gaza by..?$4,643 tracked2 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsGazaIsraelMiddle EastWorld
Yes
7¢
No
94¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify. Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify. Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
96¢
93¢
90¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?

19d ago

$2,672 on No at 56¢

56¢94¢38¢

Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?

23d ago

$1,971 on No at 56¢

56¢94¢38¢

Related Theses