Part of: Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?
This prediction market asks whether non-Israeli and non-Palestinian police, security, military, or peacekeeping personnel will officially begin an operation on the ground in Gaza by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Recent smart-money activity favors No, with tracked signals showing a 92% winner adding to the No position; the market resolves on September 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify. Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify. Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,643.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Gaza, Israel, Middle East, World
Notable Trades
92% winner adds to No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader added nearly $2,000 to an existing No position in a thin market despite the price moving against it.
- This bettor has won 92% of 72 resolved trades and is up $26,425 lifetime.
- They added $1,971 to No, representing 61% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
- The market moved sharply toward Yes, yet this bettor increased their No position in a wide-spread market.
$2,672 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
92% winner adds to No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader added nearly $2,000 to an existing No position in a thin market despite the price moving against it.
- This bettor has won 92% of 72 resolved trades and is up $26,425 lifetime.
- They added $1,971 to No, representing 61% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
- The market moved sharply toward Yes, yet this bettor increased their No position in a wide-spread market.
$1,971 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $8,425 (64% win rate)
- 0xe0a5...f6a4 — No, $6,824 (80% win rate)
- 0x43cf...88fa — Yes, $6,291 (64% win rate)
- 0x2779...239a — Yes, $5,681 (78% win rate)
- 0x60a9...5a71 — No, $5,302 (49% win rate)
- 0xe54b...aa14 — No, $5,135 (81% win rate)
- 0xf1ef...8cd6 — Yes, $3,000 (55% win rate)
- 0x9d82...bfe0 — No, $2,480 (100% win rate)
- 0xe27c...51db — No, $2,193 (49% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — Yes, $1,760 (56% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement Delayed Past September
Covers 4 related markets
IAEA won’t visit Iranian nuclear sites
Covers 1 related market
Iranian blockade will persist
Covers 2 related markets
US-Iran ceasefire holds by July 31
Covers 1 related market
Phase II ceasefire won’t happen
Covers 2 related markets
Foreign intervention in Gaza soon
Covers 1 related market
Houthis will hit shipping
Covers 1 related market
Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s leader
Covers 2 related markets
Houthis avoid Saudi attacks
Covers 1 related market
Ceasefire holds through mid-August
Covers 6 related markets
