Part of: GPT-5.6 released by...?
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,933.
Categories: AI, OpenAI, Tech, gpt
Notable Trades
86% win-rate serial trader
Surfacing because this is a proven sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L, even though the individual bet size is modest.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up about $61.7K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 151 events and over $1.1M in flagged volume.
- Buying Yes at 89¢ shows high conviction despite the market already pricing GPT-5.6 as likely.
$1,022 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
86% win-rate serial trader
Surfacing because this is a proven sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L, even though the individual bet size is modest.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up about $61.7K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 151 events and over $1.1M in flagged volume.
- Buying Yes at 89¢ shows high conviction despite the market already pricing GPT-5.6 as likely.
$1,261 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial thesis trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No at 11¢ on an AI release market with recent momentum against Yes.
- This bettor has won 70% of 1,050 resolved trades and is up $53K lifetime.
- They bought No at 11¢ while the market has been moving down, with No now around 14¢.
- The wallet trades across many related markets, with 48 markets across 32 events tracked.
$1,127 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable AI contrarian
A profitable 80% winner is taking a contrarian No position across related GPT release markets, though the price has moved against their entry.
- This bettor has won 80% of resolved bets and is up $1.6K lifetime.
- They bought No at 15¢ against a market pricing Yes near 90%, implying a contrarian release-timing view.
- This is part of a two-market GPT-release thesis, but the price has since moved against their entry.
$1,523 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xb94c...4c0c — Outcome 99347735, $16,261
- 0x1e1f...c855 — Outcome 99347735, $10,000 (59% win rate)
- 0x6974...6256 — Outcome 99347735, $5,000 (75% win rate)
- 0x8b20...38ff — Outcome 99347735, $4,473
- 0x7b75...3fd1 — Outcome 99347735, $2,000 (50% win rate)
- 0x4d45...1ed1 — Outcome 99347735, $1,760
- 0xc28d...1773 — Outcome 99347735, $1,370 (100% win rate)
- 0x9c8e...2bb0 — Outcome 99347735, $1,288
- 0x342b...52eb — Outcome 99347735, $1,158
- 0xe1a3...24ea — Outcome 99347735, $1,135 (12% win rate)
Related Theses
Fed rate hike or hold
Covers 2 related markets
Fed won’t cut by 2026
Covers 5 related markets
Iran peace deal timing arbitrage
Covers 6 related markets
Iranian blockade ends mid-August
Covers 5 related markets
Iran leadership remains unchanged
Covers 3 related markets
