Part of: Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?

This prediction market tracks whether Iran will officially announce and begin collecting mandatory fees, tolls, tariffs, or similar charges from commercial vessels using or accessing the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $7,351 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $7,351.

Categories: toll, Iran, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding $7.4k to a No position on a geopolitical market, though the edge is tempered by their tendency to buy high-probability outcomes.

  • This bettor is up $485k lifetime across 657 resolved trades.
  • They have traded 27 related events and are now adding to an existing No position.
  • The $7.4k buy was large for recent activity, about 84% of the signal window’s volume.

$7,351 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8c66...44f3 Yes, $15,215 (84% win rate)
  2. 0xcd71...d127 No, $10,445 (80% win rate)
  3. 0x62cf...5826 No, $5,000 (64% win rate)
  4. 0x162f...798d No, $5,000 (70% win rate)
  5. 0x5109...5e9c Yes, $4,838 (40% win rate)
  6. 0xcc79...1c2a No, $4,285
  7. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $3,142 (79% win rate)
  8. 0x9352...2227 Yes, $2,340 (60% win rate)
  9. 0x058f...4883 No, $1,783 (96% win rate)
  10. 0x3eae...e2ed No, $1,700 (99% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal arrives in May

Covers 6 related markets

Iran won't charge Hormuz fees

Covers 3 related markets

US avoids invading Iran

Covers 1 related market

Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?

10dIran charges Hormuz fees by...?$7,351 tracked1 signaltollIranGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
5¢
No
96¢

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
98¢
87¢
75¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?

6d ago

$7,351 on No at 88¢

88¢96¢8¢

Related Theses