Iran coup attempt by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,547.

Categories: Iran, Israel, World, Trump, Middle East, Geopolitics, Iran Regime, Reza Pahlavi

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes at 17¢ on a geopolitical market showing recent upward momentum.

  • This bettor has won 69% of 405 resolved bets and is up $256K lifetime.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 17¢, below the current 18% market price.
  • The market has moved up 5.5 points in the past day, matching this trader’s direction.

$2,547 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Top Holders

  1. 0xae7c...487e Yes, $41,000 (87% win rate)
  2. 0x8e5c...a68a No, $23,477 (80% win rate)
  3. 0xdf17...97d1 No, $22,013 (52% win rate)
  4. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $21,677 (64% win rate)
  5. 0x614d...1546 No, $19,773 (66% win rate)
  6. 0x9078...26af Yes, $13,471
  7. 0xb128...cf58 Yes, $11,558 (74% win rate)
  8. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $11,228 (47% win rate)
  9. 0x4b76...94fd Yes, $10,238
  10. 0xbad2...5296 No, $7,034 (53% win rate)

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Iran coup attempt by June 30?

60d$2,547 tracked1 signalIranIsraelWorldTrumpMiddle EastGeopoliticsIran RegimeReza Pahlavi
Yes
21¢
No
80¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
90¢
84¢
78¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

3h ago

$2,547 on Yes at 17¢

17¢21¢4¢

Related Theses

Iran coup attempt by June 30? | PolySpotter