Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether Iran will initiate a general, non-weather-related closure of its airspace covering all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace or the Tehran FIR by the July 31, 2026 deadline. Current live odds are available on the market page, while PolySpotter has tracked $1,569 in smart-money activity, including a recent profitable sharp buying No. The market resolves to No if no qualifying general closure occurs before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,569.
Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close
Notable Trades
Profitable sharp buying NO
Surfaced despite a low composite score because the buyer is a proven profitable wallet adding a meaningful No bet in a thin geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $53k lifetime.
- The $1.6k No buy was nearly half of the market’s 24h volume, showing real conviction in a quiet market.
- They entered at 66¢ and the market has already moved toward them to about 72¢.
$1,569 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0xbf96...9942 — No, $2,424 (81% win rate)
- 0xc662...b919 — Yes, $871 (66% win rate)
- 0xd0d9...d6db — Yes, $831
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $800 (47% win rate)
- 0xfe72...f18c — Yes, $500 (62% win rate)
- 0x8e4f...4594 — Yes, $371 (59% win rate)
- 0x1c4c...8d85 — No, $354 (46% win rate)
- 0x46ea...a98f — No, $352
- 0x11f8...1c4e — Yes, $300
- 0x2e1f...8fde — Yes, $210
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