Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
25 smart money signals detected, totaling $101,234.
Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor exits Yes for profit
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial edge sold Yes, though the trade appears partly to be profit-taking from an earlier position.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,427 resolved trades and is up $754,121 lifetime.
- Selling Yes at 38¢ implies a bearish view equivalent to buying No around 62¢.
- The wallet previously bought Yes near 20¢, so this may be profit-taking rather than entirely fresh conviction.
$1,374 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp bettor exits Yes for profit
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial edge sold Yes, though the trade appears partly to be profit-taking from an earlier position.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,427 resolved trades and is up $754,121 lifetime.
- Selling Yes at 38¢ implies a bearish view equivalent to buying No around 62¢.
- The wallet previously bought Yes near 20¢, so this may be profit-taking rather than entirely fresh conviction.
$1,170 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Funded cluster backs No
A concentrated $10.9K No position, including a 91% winner and wallets linked through a 17-wallet funding cluster, is notable despite some Yes sells being routine profit-taking.
- Six wallets committed $10,850 to No, including a bettor with a 91% win rate across 22 resolved markets.
- The broader funding network includes 17 linked wallets, adding weight to the coordinated directional signal.
- Some Yes sells appear to be profit-taking, but multiple wallets are actively holding or adding to No positions.
$10,850 on No
17-wallet cluster backs No
A proven 81% winner joined a 17-wallet funded cluster to sell Yes, creating a notable coordinated bearish signal despite only one recorded trade.
- This wallet has won 81% of 213 resolved bets and is up $7,252 lifetime.
- Seventeen linked wallets share the same funder, indicating coordinated conviction on the No side.
- The trade sold Yes at 32¢, equivalent to buying No at 68¢ as Yes had recently risen 9% in a day.
$1,082 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
93% sharp buying event risk
A highly profitable 93% lifetime winner bought Yes during a major volume and price spike on a geopolitically sensitive market.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
- The market saw an 89.6x volume spike with Yes moving sharply higher.
- They paid 63¢ for Yes, well above the current 40¢ odds, showing strong conviction.
$8,828 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and $821k P&L is buying No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $821k lifetime.
- They have traded across 74 related events and 199 markets, suggesting a repeatable event-driven strategy.
- A $6.7k buy on No at 84¢ shows conviction that a full Iran airspace closure is unlikely.
$1,035 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and $821k P&L is buying No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $821k lifetime.
- They have traded across 74 related events and 199 markets, suggesting a repeatable event-driven strategy.
- A $6.7k buy on No at 84¢ shows conviction that a full Iran airspace closure is unlikely.
$2,159 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
92% sharp exits YES
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet is exiting its Yes position, which converts to a No signal, though the trade is modest relative to market volume.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $1.24M lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 22¢ after previously entering around 31¢, signaling they are moving away from an airspace-closure outcome.
- This wallet has traded 617 markets across 395 events, suggesting a broad repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
$1,427 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No on an Iran airspace closure market during a major volume spike, and the price has already moved in their favor.
- This bettor is up about $1.0M across 987 resolved bets and has traded 120 related event markets.
- They bought No at 75¢, and the market has already moved to 81¢ in their favor.
- Market activity spiked nearly 49x versus normal, suggesting fresh positioning around this geopolitical event.
$3,897 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No on an Iran airspace closure market during a major volume spike, and the price has already moved in their favor.
- This bettor is up about $1.0M across 987 resolved bets and has traded 120 related event markets.
- They bought No at 75¢, and the market has already moved to 81¢ in their favor.
- Market activity spiked nearly 49x versus normal, suggesting fresh positioning around this geopolitical event.
$3,761 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Yes, $37,980 (73% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $24,153 (71% win rate)
- 0xf748...c387 — Yes, $20,000
- 0x152f...c7e7 — Yes, $13,588
- 0xbc43...1540 — Yes, $12,500 (84% win rate)
- 0x5109...5e9c — Yes, $11,670 (40% win rate)
- 0xacc9...c790 — Yes, $10,765 (32% win rate)
- 0xe6f8...15ec — Yes, $8,302
- 0xff99...5602 — Yes, $7,354 (75% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — Yes, $6,500 (66% win rate)
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