Part of: Iran full airspace closure by...?
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
25 smart money signals detected, totaling $101,234.
Categories: U.S. x Iran, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, close
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor exits Yes for profit
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial edge sold Yes, though the trade appears partly to be profit-taking from an earlier position.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,427 resolved trades and is up $754,121 lifetime.
- Selling Yes at 38¢ implies a bearish view equivalent to buying No around 62¢.
- The wallet previously bought Yes near 20¢, so this may be profit-taking rather than entirely fresh conviction.
$1,374 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp bettor exits Yes for profit
A highly proven bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial edge sold Yes, though the trade appears partly to be profit-taking from an earlier position.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,427 resolved trades and is up $754,121 lifetime.
- Selling Yes at 38¢ implies a bearish view equivalent to buying No around 62¢.
- The wallet previously bought Yes near 20¢, so this may be profit-taking rather than entirely fresh conviction.
$1,170 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Funded cluster backs No
A concentrated $10.9K No position, including a 91% winner and wallets linked through a 17-wallet funding cluster, is notable despite some Yes sells being routine profit-taking.
- Six wallets committed $10,850 to No, including a bettor with a 91% win rate across 22 resolved markets.
- The broader funding network includes 17 linked wallets, adding weight to the coordinated directional signal.
- Some Yes sells appear to be profit-taking, but multiple wallets are actively holding or adding to No positions.
$10,850 on No
17-wallet cluster backs No
A proven 81% winner joined a 17-wallet funded cluster to sell Yes, creating a notable coordinated bearish signal despite only one recorded trade.
- This wallet has won 81% of 213 resolved bets and is up $7,252 lifetime.
- Seventeen linked wallets share the same funder, indicating coordinated conviction on the No side.
- The trade sold Yes at 32¢, equivalent to buying No at 68¢ as Yes had recently risen 9% in a day.
$1,082 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
93% sharp buying event risk
A highly profitable 93% lifetime winner bought Yes during a major volume and price spike on a geopolitically sensitive market.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
- The market saw an 89.6x volume spike with Yes moving sharply higher.
- They paid 63¢ for Yes, well above the current 40¢ odds, showing strong conviction.
$8,828 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and $821k P&L is buying No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $821k lifetime.
- They have traded across 74 related events and 199 markets, suggesting a repeatable event-driven strategy.
- A $6.7k buy on No at 84¢ shows conviction that a full Iran airspace closure is unlikely.
$1,035 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate and $821k P&L is buying No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $821k lifetime.
- They have traded across 74 related events and 199 markets, suggesting a repeatable event-driven strategy.
- A $6.7k buy on No at 84¢ shows conviction that a full Iran airspace closure is unlikely.
$2,159 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
92% sharp exits YES
A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet is exiting its Yes position, which converts to a No signal, though the trade is modest relative to market volume.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $1.24M lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 22¢ after previously entering around 31¢, signaling they are moving away from an airspace-closure outcome.
- This wallet has traded 617 markets across 395 events, suggesting a broad repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
$1,427 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No on an Iran airspace closure market during a major volume spike, and the price has already moved in their favor.
- This bettor is up about $1.0M across 987 resolved bets and has traded 120 related event markets.
- They bought No at 75¢, and the market has already moved to 81¢ in their favor.
- Market activity spiked nearly 49x versus normal, suggesting fresh positioning around this geopolitical event.
$3,897 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No on an Iran airspace closure market during a major volume spike, and the price has already moved in their favor.
- This bettor is up about $1.0M across 987 resolved bets and has traded 120 related event markets.
- They bought No at 75¢, and the market has already moved to 81¢ in their favor.
- Market activity spiked nearly 49x versus normal, suggesting fresh positioning around this geopolitical event.
$3,761 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 63808062, $37,980 (73% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 63808062, $24,153 (70% win rate)
- 0xfd66...fb6d — Outcome 63808062, $22,358 (20% win rate)
- 0xf748...c387 — Outcome 63808062, $20,000
- 0x152f...c7e7 — Outcome 63808062, $13,588
- 0xbc43...1540 — Outcome 63808062, $12,500 (84% win rate)
- 0x5109...5e9c — Outcome 63808062, $11,670 (40% win rate)
- 0xacc9...c790 — Outcome 63808062, $10,765 (32% win rate)
- 0xd7f1...73cd — Outcome 63808062, $8,458
- 0xe6f8...15ec — Outcome 63808062, $8,302
Related Theses
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