Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by April 30?
This Polymarket asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point before April 30, 2026. It resolves to Yes if he is removed, detained, or otherwise prevented from acting as Iran’s de facto leader during the market window; otherwise it resolves to No. PolySpotter tracks smart money activity on this Iran leadership change market, including recent signals from geopolitics-focused traders.
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $68,799.
Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor bought early
A high-win-rate bettor bought Yes at 26¢ into a huge volume spike, and the market has already moved up to 34¢ afterward.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $111k lifetime
- They bought Yes at 26¢ before the market moved to 34¢, a roughly 8-point favorable move
- Market activity is running 191x above normal, suggesting traders are rushing into this story
$4,807 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
72% win-rate geopolitics grinder
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong long-term track record is reopening a No position in a geopolitics market they previously traded successfully, signaling renewed conviction.
- This bettor has won 826 of 1,147 resolved markets and is up $221k overall.
- They trade across events at scale: 311 markets and $1.23M tracked, with 3 related positions in this event totaling $46k.
- This is a fresh No buy after previously closing a No position here, showing renewed conviction at 90¢.
$1,814 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable geopolitics grinder
A highly active wallet with 873 resolved bets and $865k profit is expressing a consistent cross-market view on Iran leadership by buying No at 90¢.
- This bettor has 873 resolved bets, is up $865k lifetime, and wins 64% of the time
- They have been betting across 4 related Iran markets, which suggests a deliberate event-level thesis rather than a one-off trade
- Buying No at 90¢ shows high confidence in the status quo before April 30, and the market is liquid enough that this was not just a random small trade
$4,593 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
94% win-rate thesis bettor
A bettor with a 94% win rate is expressing the same leadership-change thesis across related markets, and this trade effectively buys Yes at 11¢ in a major news-sensitive market.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades with 15 wins in 16 markets
- They sold No at 89¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 11¢ on leadership change
- The same wallet is betting across 2 related markets in this event with about $30k total exposure
$9,260 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
76% winner flips to No
A proven 76% win-rate trader with broad cross-market event experience has opened a fresh No position after closing a prior Yes bet, suggesting an updated thesis rather than routine position management.
- This bettor has won 213 of 281 resolved markets and is up about $155k lifetime
- They trade across related event markets often — 70 markets over 51 events — which suggests a thesis-driven approach
- This is a fresh No buy at 89¢ after closing an earlier Yes position, showing a clear view that leadership change is unlikely by April 30
$2,328 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
New whale buying geopolitics Yes
A 5-day-old wallet has already deployed over $10k across multiple flagged positions and is now taking a fresh contrarian stance on a major geopolitics market by effectively buying Yes at 19¢.
- This 5-day-old wallet has already made 4 notable bets totaling over $10k
- The trade is effectively a buy of Yes at 19¢, a cheap contrarian entry in a major geopolitics market
- This is fresh positioning in a liquid market with odds only up 3 points in the last day
$2,267 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
7-wallet sharp cluster
A 7-wallet linked cluster with prior history is buying No in a liquid geopolitics market, and this wallet also has a strong 77% win rate across 253 resolved bets.
- This wallet wins 77% of its bets across 253 resolved markets and is up $4.3k.
- Seven linked wallets share the same funder, which points to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- They bought No at 79¢ in a high-volume geopolitics market now trading around 80%, backing the favorite with experienced flow.
$1,091 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
83% winner cross-market thesis
A high-volume cross-market trader with an 83% win rate sold No at 90¢ here, effectively taking the Yes side at 10¢ across a broader event thesis.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved markets and is up $578k across $9.5M traded
- They have bet nearly $5.0M across 130 events and are active in 4 related Iran markets
- Selling No at 90¢ is the same as buying Yes at 10¢, a cheap entry if their broader thesis is right
$3,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Iran leadership change by April 30?
A very new wallet with early profits and a perfect 8-for-8 record just made another large, repeated bet, putting $26.8k into No on a major geopolitics market.
- This 7-day-old wallet is already up $16.9k and has won all 8 of its resolved bets
- It has made 11 large flagged bets totaling $96.6k, suggesting repeat conviction rather than a one-off punt
- The trader bought No at 90¢ in a deep geopolitics market, backing the status quo with size
$26,820 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Iran leadership change by April 30?
A proven high-volume trader with a 71% win rate is re-entering No on this Iran leadership market as part of a broader cross-market event thesis.
- This bettor has won 782 of 1,096 resolved markets and is up about $180k overall
- They are trading across 3 related markets in the same event with about $48k deployed, which points to a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet
- This is a fresh No position at 90¢ after a prior No trade was closed, showing renewed conviction even at a high implied probability
$3,811 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0x791e...17dd — Outcome 99767261, $295,037 (37% win rate)
- 0x746f...566d — Outcome 99767261, $42,898 (55% win rate)
- 0x6d8c...cf02 — Outcome 99767261, $30,626 (0% win rate)
- 0x29ea...701e — Outcome 99767261, $25,949
- 0xafc0...5087 — Outcome 99767261, $24,154 (57% win rate)
- 0xd512...79b3 — Outcome 99767261, $17,141
- 0xb277...d904 — Outcome 99767261, $16,247
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 99767261, $14,976 (86% win rate)
- 0x1caa...46a0 — Outcome 99767261, $13,659
- 0x94a8...5204 — Outcome 99767261, $13,627
