Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by June 30?
This Polymarket market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point before the June 30, 2026 resolution date. It resolves “Yes” if he is removed, detained, loses power, or is otherwise prevented from acting as Iran’s de facto leader; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,136 in smart money activity, including signals from sharp geopolitical and cross-market bettors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
20 smart money signals detected, totaling $67,382.
Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
Sharp serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 76% resolved win rate and +$510k P&L is buying No on the Iran leadership-change market.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $510k lifetime.
- They have traded across 25 events and 34 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- This is part of a larger $22.5k position across 3 related markets, with this entry buying No at 86¢.
$3,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Perfect-record cross-market bettor
A perfect-record wallet with 51 resolved wins and positive P&L is taking a $13.8k cross-market No stance, making the trader more notable than the modest single trade size.
- This bettor has won 51 of 51 resolved trades and is up $11.5k lifetime.
- They have placed $13.8k across 3 related markets, all pointing to the same view.
- This $1.1k buy on No comes despite Yes rising 8 points today.
$1,136 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on Iran leadership change after positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved bets and is up about $166,912 lifetime.
- They have traded across 97 events and 196 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market research edge.
- Selling No at 88¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢, a low-probability bet with asymmetric upside.
$1,144 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable cross-market bettor
A proven profitable wallet with 1,163 resolved bets is taking the Yes side as part of a 4-market cross-market thesis on the same event.
- This bettor has won 75% of 1,163 resolved bets and is up $168,650 lifetime.
- They are positioned across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Selling No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 11¢, a contrarian bet against the market’s 90% No pricing.
$1,157 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Sharp geopolitical cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 77% resolved win rate and +$508k lifetime P&L bought $5.6k of No while positioning across related Iran leadership markets.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $508k lifetime.
- They have traded across 25 events and are now positioning across 3 related markets in the same event.
- A $5.6k buy at 88¢ signals confidence that Iran’s leadership will not change by the deadline.
$5,624 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp cross-market trader with a 76% resolved win rate and $507k lifetime profit bought $5.4k of No while already active across related markets.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $507k lifetime.
- They have traded 25 events across 34 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- This is part of a larger $24.9k position across 3 related markets.
$5,423 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market trader
Experienced profitable cross-market trader is adding a small Yes position as part of a broader Iran thesis, though the signal is moderate rather than strong.
- This bettor is up $311K lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved trades.
- They have traded 74 markets across 46 related events, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 14¢ implies a high-upside view on a low-probability political outcome.
$1,357 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Serial cross-market sharp cluster
Three wallets are buying No together, led by a serial cross-market trader with a 93% resolved win rate and very large prior volume across related markets.
- A serial cross-market bettor with a 93% win record has traded across 148 events and $2.9M total volume.
- Three wallets bought the same No outcome within minutes, adding $6.5K of coordinated one-way flow.
- The strongest wallet is positioning across 4 related markets with $163K traded, suggesting a broader Iran leadership thesis.
$6,457 on No
93% serial cross-market trader
Serial cross-market trader with a 93% resolved win rate is adding a No position as part of a large multi-market Iran leadership thesis, though lifetime P&L is slightly negative.
- This bettor has won 93% of 1,173 resolved bets, with over $11.8M previously invested.
- They are active across 4 related markets in this event, totaling $163K in the same broader thesis.
- This trade buys No at 82¢, suggesting confidence that Iran's leadership will not change by the deadline.
$1,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Perfect-record cross-market bettor
A perfect-history wallet is making a cross-market Iran leadership thesis, but the edge is moderated because its wins were mostly high-probability favorites.
- This bettor has won 43 of 43 resolved trades and is up $8.5K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 3 related markets in the same event, totaling $13.9K.
- This is a conservative entry at 89¢ on No, matching the market’s current favorite side.
$1,278 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xa022...77f8 — Yes, $42,239 (72% win rate)
- 0x8e5c...a68a — No, $34,924 (76% win rate)
- 0x7a0d...53f7 — Yes, $30,853
- 0xfb51...742d — No, $24,773 (75% win rate)
- 0x836f...906e — No, $22,357 (100% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $21,529 (87% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — No, $18,415 (70% win rate)
- 0x8e77...c4f3 — No, $15,100
- 0xeb22...808a — Yes, $15,000 (34% win rate)
- 0x862f...fc3c — Yes, $14,880
Related Theses
No Iran deal by June 7
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Iran airspace contracts mispriced
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