Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by June 30?
21 smart money signals detected, totaling $68,552.
Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
82% winner flips to Yes
Surface this: a highly profitable 82% winner is flipping into Yes while also expressing a broader cross-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $570k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.5M deployed across 152 related markets.
- This looks like a thesis shift: they previously closed a No position and are now buying Yes at 6¢.
$1,170 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Sharp serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 76% resolved win rate and +$510k P&L is buying No on the Iran leadership-change market.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $510k lifetime.
- They have traded across 25 events and 34 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- This is part of a larger $22.5k position across 3 related markets, with this entry buying No at 86¢.
$3,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Perfect-record cross-market bettor
A perfect-record wallet with 51 resolved wins and positive P&L is taking a $13.8k cross-market No stance, making the trader more notable than the modest single trade size.
- This bettor has won 51 of 51 resolved trades and is up $11.5k lifetime.
- They have placed $13.8k across 3 related markets, all pointing to the same view.
- This $1.1k buy on No comes despite Yes rising 8 points today.
$1,136 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on Iran leadership change after positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved bets and is up about $166,912 lifetime.
- They have traded across 97 events and 196 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market research edge.
- Selling No at 88¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢, a low-probability bet with asymmetric upside.
$1,144 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable cross-market bettor
A proven profitable wallet with 1,163 resolved bets is taking the Yes side as part of a 4-market cross-market thesis on the same event.
- This bettor has won 75% of 1,163 resolved bets and is up $168,650 lifetime.
- They are positioned across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Selling No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 11¢, a contrarian bet against the market’s 90% No pricing.
$1,157 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Sharp geopolitical cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 77% resolved win rate and +$508k lifetime P&L bought $5.6k of No while positioning across related Iran leadership markets.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $508k lifetime.
- They have traded across 25 events and are now positioning across 3 related markets in the same event.
- A $5.6k buy at 88¢ signals confidence that Iran’s leadership will not change by the deadline.
$5,624 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp cross-market trader with a 76% resolved win rate and $507k lifetime profit bought $5.4k of No while already active across related markets.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $507k lifetime.
- They have traded 25 events across 34 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- This is part of a larger $24.9k position across 3 related markets.
$5,423 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable cross-market trader
Experienced profitable cross-market trader is adding a small Yes position as part of a broader Iran thesis, though the signal is moderate rather than strong.
- This bettor is up $311K lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved trades.
- They have traded 74 markets across 46 related events, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 14¢ implies a high-upside view on a low-probability political outcome.
$1,357 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Serial cross-market sharp cluster
Three wallets are buying No together, led by a serial cross-market trader with a 93% resolved win rate and very large prior volume across related markets.
- A serial cross-market bettor with a 93% win record has traded across 148 events and $2.9M total volume.
- Three wallets bought the same No outcome within minutes, adding $6.5K of coordinated one-way flow.
- The strongest wallet is positioning across 4 related markets with $163K traded, suggesting a broader Iran leadership thesis.
$6,457 on No
93% serial cross-market trader
Serial cross-market trader with a 93% resolved win rate is adding a No position as part of a large multi-market Iran leadership thesis, though lifetime P&L is slightly negative.
- This bettor has won 93% of 1,173 resolved bets, with over $11.8M previously invested.
- They are active across 4 related markets in this event, totaling $163K in the same broader thesis.
- This trade buys No at 82¢, suggesting confidence that Iran's leadership will not change by the deadline.
$1,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 36812072, $51,204 (69% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 36812072, $42,239 (70% win rate)
- 0x01a2...b1a0 — Outcome 36812072, $41,222 (20% win rate)
- 0x557a...3d56 — Outcome 36812072, $39,659 (81% win rate)
- 0x4e09...d784 — Outcome 11403708, $27,107 (85% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 36812072, $21,529 (86% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 36812072, $21,266 (80% win rate)
- 0xb5be...7286 — Outcome 36812072, $15,000
- 0x3e59...b2be — Outcome 36812072, $12,609
- 0x7f0f...dab3 — Outcome 36812072, $12,500
