Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
This prediction market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran by June 30, 2027. The market resolves Yes if he is removed, detained, loses his position, or is otherwise prevented from acting as leader; otherwise, it resolves No. Live Yes/No prices represent the market’s changing probability estimate, with $8,596 in tracked smart-money activity and recent signals scaling into No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,213.
Categories: Politics, Iran, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Mojtaba, ayatollah, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
Three-wallet coordinated Yes buying
Three wallets made nearly $19,000 of coordinated exposure to Yes during a 123x volume spike, despite no convincing track-record evidence of an edge.
- Three wallets moved nearly $19,000 toward leadership change within seconds of each other.
- The trades coincided with a 123x spike in volume, while Yes was priced around 29¢.
- The wallets’ records do not show a clear edge, so coordination and timing are the main reasons to watch this position.
$18,950 on Yes
Three-wallet No buying surge
Three wallets added $19,217 to No during a 150.8x volume spike, creating a notable coordinated position despite mixed track records.
- Three wallets bought No for a combined $19,217 within minutes.
- The trades coincided with a 150.8x volume spike and were about 58% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
- The wallets were adding to existing No positions at 72¢; their recorded results are mixed, so the coordination is a stronger signal than their track records.
$19,217 on No
Profitable bettor scales into No
A profitable bettor is adding $4,450 to an already large No position in a relatively quiet market, though the evidence is moderate rather than overwhelming.
- This bettor is up $31,941 lifetime with a 71% win rate across seven resolved bets.
- The $4,450 purchase represented 53.7% of the market's 24-hour volume and added to a $36,291 existing No position.
- The No thesis is consistent with the market's recent move from 83% to 80% implied probability for No.
$8,596 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable bettor scales into No
A profitable bettor is adding $4,450 to an already large No position in a relatively quiet market, though the evidence is moderate rather than overwhelming.
- This bettor is up $31,941 lifetime with a 71% win rate across seven resolved bets.
- The $4,450 purchase represented 53.7% of the market's 24-hour volume and added to a $36,291 existing No position.
- The No thesis is consistent with the market's recent move from 83% to 80% implied probability for No.
$4,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0xcc03...d5c0 — No, $20,000 (70% win rate)
- 0x9d73...216b — No, $11,682 (73% win rate)
- 0xcca9...4c9f — No, $6,139 (67% win rate)
- 0x70a7...82ad — Yes, $5,629 (100% win rate)
- 0xc390...2a1f — Yes, $5,111
- 0xdd5a...4d23 — Yes, $4,841
- 0x8f42...b88f — Yes, $4,117 (59% win rate)
- 0xe258...d084 — No, $3,434 (80% win rate)
- 0x4e8b...1ea1 — No, $2,655
- 0xe8dc...3e53 — Yes, $2,580 (77% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran leadership change after December
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Putin exits in early 2027
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