Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
This prediction market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran by June 30, 2027. The market resolves Yes if he is removed, detained, loses his position, or is otherwise prevented from acting as leader; otherwise, it resolves No. Live Yes/No prices represent the market’s changing probability estimate, with $8,596 in tracked smart-money activity and recent signals scaling into No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,046.
Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
Profitable bettor scales into No
A profitable bettor is adding $4,450 to an already large No position in a relatively quiet market, though the evidence is moderate rather than overwhelming.
- This bettor is up $31,941 lifetime with a 71% win rate across seven resolved bets.
- The $4,450 purchase represented 53.7% of the market's 24-hour volume and added to a $36,291 existing No position.
- The No thesis is consistent with the market's recent move from 83% to 80% implied probability for No.
$8,596 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable bettor scales into No
A profitable bettor is adding $4,450 to an already large No position in a relatively quiet market, though the evidence is moderate rather than overwhelming.
- This bettor is up $31,941 lifetime with a 71% win rate across seven resolved bets.
- The $4,450 purchase represented 53.7% of the market's 24-hour volume and added to a $36,291 existing No position.
- The No thesis is consistent with the market's recent move from 83% to 80% implied probability for No.
$4,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0xcc03...d5c0 — No, $24,291 (71% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $18,068 (70% win rate)
- 0xe258...d084 — No, $11,334 (75% win rate)
- 0x9d73...216b — No, $7,177 (73% win rate)
- 0xcca9...4c9f — No, $6,139 (67% win rate)
- 0x70a7...82ad — Yes, $5,629 (100% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $5,448
- 0xdd5a...4d23 — Yes, $3,772
- 0xe154...0b7f — Yes, $2,898 (10% win rate)
- 0xb78d...0d5b — No, $2,673 (74% win rate)
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Iran leadership change after December
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Putin exits in early 2027
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