Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by May 31?
This prediction market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point before the May 31, 2026 resolution deadline. It resolves Yes if he is removed from power, detained, or otherwise prevented from acting as Iran’s de facto leader; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter currently tracks $59,585 in smart money activity across 14 signals, with recent alerts including political clusters and cross-market bettors buying No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
22 smart money signals detected, totaling $97,604.
Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate is re-entering No and has $74k positioned across six related markets in the same Iran event.
- This bettor has won 74% of 1,020 resolved bets and is up $155k lifetime.
- They have $74k spread across six related markets in this Iran leadership event.
- Buying No at 90¢ suggests a high-conviction view that leadership change remains unlikely by May 31.
$1,083 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Serial cross-market No bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a 76% resolved-bet hit rate is adding a $2.7k No position as part of a broader $37.8k event thesis, though lifetime P&L is negative and this is a high-price favorite.
- This bettor has won 76% of 1,180 resolved bets and trades heavily across related markets.
- They have $37.8k positioned across 5 markets in this same event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Entry at 90¢ is a low-upside favorite, but the market is liquid and active with $146k traded in 24h.
$2,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
34-0 bettor buying NO
A perfect-record wallet is extending a $16k cross-market thesis by buying No on a politically meaningful Iran leadership market.
- This bettor has won 34 of 34 resolved trades and is up $6.7k lifetime.
- They have put $16.2k across 3 related markets, all pointing to the same thesis.
- Buying No at 90¢ suggests a conservative but high-conviction view that leadership change is unlikely.
$4,112 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is backing No across this Iran leadership event with meaningful total sizing.
- This bettor has won 66% of 1,039 resolved bets and is up $285K lifetime.
- They have traded 43 related events before and now have $73.8K positioned across 3 markets in this event.
- Buying No at 89¢ shows a high-conviction view that Iran’s leadership does not change by the deadline.
$8,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
74% cross-market Iran bettor
A proven 74% winner with $164k profit is building a broader $60k No thesis across six related Iran leadership markets.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $164k lifetime.
- They have placed $60k across six related Iran leadership markets, showing a clear No thesis.
- Buying No at 88¢ suggests they see leadership change by May 31 as unlikely.
$3,104 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
15-wallet cluster buying NO
A known 15-wallet funded cluster with an 87% hit rate is placing a $9.4k status-quo bet on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved markets across 930 bets, though mostly on heavy favorites.
- The wallet is part of a 15-wallet funded cluster with over $8.5M in cross-market trading history.
- A $9.4k buy at 87¢ signals confidence that Iran’s leadership will not change by May 31.
$9,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Serial cross-market Yes bettor
High-scoring cross-market signal from a very active political trader taking a contrarian Yes position across related Iran leadership markets, though the single trade is modest versus market volume.
- This wallet has $161k positioned across 3 related markets in the same event.
- The trade converts to buying Yes at 13¢, against the market’s 86% No consensus.
- This is a highly active trader across 222 markets, with most resolved bets ending in wins.
$2,479 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
Iran leadership change by May 31?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,760 | Wallet win rate: 94%
Iran leadership change by May 31?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,047 | Wallet win rate: 94%
74% cross-market bettor buys NO
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% record is buying No as part of a broader $24k Iran-event position amid a major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 74% of 326 resolved trades and is up about $220k lifetime.
- They are positioning across 4 related markets with about $24k total, suggesting a broader Iran thesis.
- Market activity spiked 175x above normal, adding momentum behind the move.
$1,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Top Holders
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $49,912 (86% win rate)
- 0x7a3c...977c — Yes, $44,831
- 0xafc0...5087 — Yes, $41,481 (63% win rate)
- 0x69aa...8847 — No, $41,107 (87% win rate)
- 0x71e5...d10b — Yes, $37,000
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $30,863 (48% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $30,039 (69% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — No, $28,142 (70% win rate)
- 0x5cd5...ac33 — No, $23,327 (93% win rate)
- 0x5715...1616 — Yes, $22,720 (36% win rate)
