Iran leadership change by May 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,684.

Notable Trades

Proven geopolitical cross-market bettor

Surface this because a proven profitable high-volume trader with 806 resolved bets and nearly $476k in profit is making a fresh cross-market bet on a serious geopolitics event.

  • This bettor has 806 resolved bets, wins 61% of the time, and is up about $476k
  • They trade related markets around the same event repeatedly — 173 markets across 86 events suggests a thesis-driven approach
  • They bought No at 75¢ and the market is now 79¢, showing early follow-through on the entry

$1,684 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 No, $57,985 (71% win rate)
  2. 0xc615...e982 Yes, $20,596
  3. 0x862f...fc3c Yes, $6,535
  4. 0x85b9...906d Yes, $6,378
  5. 0x54a7...881b No, $4,393 (95% win rate)
  6. 0x5715...1616 Yes, $4,178
  7. 0x9b69...ee2e Yes, $4,062
  8. 0xd512...79b3 Yes, $4,003
  9. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $4,000 (48% win rate)
  10. 0x6868...9b5c Yes, $3,235 (25% win rate)

Related Theses

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Iran leadership change by May 31?

54d$1,684 tracked1 signalMojtabaayatollahPoliticsIran RegimeGeopoliticsIranKhameneiMojtaba KhameneiKhamenei outMojtaba out
Yes
26¢
No
75¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Iran leadership change by May 31?

1h ago

$1,684 on No at 75¢

75¢75¢

Related Theses

Iran leadership change by May 31? | PolySpotter