Part of: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,076.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Sharp serial trader joins No cluster

Three wallets concentrated $7,414 into No, including a highly profitable 73% winner and a serial cross-market trader, while No fell 18% in a day.

  • Three wallets bought No with $7,414 combined, showing coordinated conviction in a relatively thin market.
  • One participating bettor wins 73% of 442 resolved trades and has earned $509,268 lifetime.
  • No prices fell 18% over the past day, corroborating the cluster's direction; weighted entry was about 80¢.

$7,414 on No

Serial trader backs No

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate made a fresh $1,810 No bet, and the market subsequently moved toward No.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 442 resolved trades and earned $510,286 in profit.
  • The $1,810 No position aligns with a 16-point move toward No and a broader cross-market trading record spanning 55 events.
  • The trade entered No at 75¢, below the current implied price near 81¢.

$1,810 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

73% serial bettor buys No

A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 73% win rate made a concentrated No bet in a thin-flow window, and the market moved toward No afterward.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 442 resolved trades and is up $510,286 lifetime.
  • They placed $2,852 on No at 74–75¢, more than three times the detected 24-hour trading volume.
  • The market subsequently moved toward No, from roughly 75% to 80%, supporting the direction of the trade.

$2,852 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?$12,076 tracked3 signalsIranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?

2026-09-13 19:32 UTC

$7,414 on No at 80¢

80¢→100¢↑20¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?

2026-09-13 19:23 UTC

$1,810 on No at 75¢

75¢→100¢↑25¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?

2026-09-13 19:16 UTC

$2,852 on No at 75¢

75¢→100¢↑25¢

Related Theses