Part of: Iran successfully targets shipping by...?

Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,000.

Categories: seize, strike, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, ship

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market winner

Surface: a proven 78% winner with positive lifetime P&L and extensive cross-market history bought Yes after major momentum in a geopolitical market near deadline.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $33k lifetime.
  • They have traded 41 markets across 34 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Yes has jumped 60 points in the past day, and this buy at 85¢ is already marked up to 88¢.

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0xd426...334a — No, $1,768 (51% win rate)
  2. 0xc4b2...9a9b — No, $880 (87% win rate)
  3. 0x35e3...9188 — No, $679 (72% win rate)
  4. 0xe8c4...395d — No, $677 (95% win rate)
  5. 0xc5bd...ceaa — No, $266 (63% win rate)
  6. 0x21f4...81a6 — No, $260
  7. 0x33d4...5e5f — No, $200
  8. 0xca97...5409 — No, $197
  9. 0xe3ae...217a — No, $138
  10. 0xbcd6...f3c8 — No, $135 (95% win rate)

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Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?

Iran successfully targets shipping by...?$1,000 tracked1 signalseizestrikeIranU.S. x IranIran Ceasefireship
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

Notable Trades

Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?

2026-06-27 17:58 UTC

$1,000 on Yes at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Related Theses