Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
3 signals across 2 markets · $3,283 tracked · resolves Jul 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Iranian forces successfully strike or seize a commercial ship by the stated deadline. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter currently flagging a profitable sharp buying breakout among tracked smart money.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Proven cross-market winner
Surface: a proven 78% winner with positive lifetime P&L and extensive cross-market history bought Yes after major momentum in a geopolitical market near deadline.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 4.0 - Profitable sharp buying breakout
A proven profitable wallet bought Yes into a major breakout on a geopolitics market with strong recent momentum and thin liquidity.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 3.0 - 96% winner fading spike
A proven 96% winning wallet is fading a sharp Yes spike by selling Yes, which converts to buying No at 31¢.
$1,283Wallet win rate: 96%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x7cfe9f…74da$1,283 · 1 market · 1 alert · 96% wins
- 0x4133f8…ea5d$1,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 78% wins
- 0xbf961d…9942$1,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 77% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Iran targets commercial shipping?
The market price on Polymarket reflects the live implied odds that Iran conducts a qualifying kinetic strike on, or seizes, a commercial ship before the resolution deadline.
What counts as Iran successfully targeting shipping?
The event resolves Yes only if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship, and the action is either claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory or Iranian forces. Military vessels do not count.
What is the smart money doing on this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,000 in smart money activity across this event, including a recent alert described as a profitable sharp buying breakout.
When does this Iran shipping market resolve?
The listed event resolution deadline is July 31, 2026, though the child market shown is titled for June 27. Resolution depends on Polymarket’s final market rules and confirmed reporting.
Where can I track the Iran shipping prediction market?
You can follow the event on Polymarket for live odds and use PolySpotter to monitor smart money signals, sharp trader activity, and changes in positioning.