Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by August 15?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by August 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying closure must broadly suspend commercial flights across all or most of Israeli civilian airspace; the supplied data does not include a live Yes/No price. The market has $6,149 in tracked smart money and one signal, with recent activity favoring No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $6,149.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market winners buying No

A coordinated $6.1K No position is reinforced by a serial cross-market trader with 90% wins across 52 events, despite the market’s recent decline.

  • Three wallets added $6,149 to No at 74–76¢, showing concentrated agreement that a major airspace closure is unlikely.
  • One participating bettor has won 90% of 190 resolved trades and has traded across 52 events.
  • The market has fallen 10–12.5% recently, yet these traders continued accumulating No rather than chasing the new price.

$6,149 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x7bc1...8db4 Yes, $11,711 (66% win rate)
  2. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $4,901 (61% win rate)
  3. 0xa41c...4419 Yes, $4,536 (22% win rate)
  4. 0x7f9e...3a0e No, $4,369 (90% win rate)
  5. 0x88c4...129a No, $3,887 (89% win rate)
  6. 0x6a83...4c59 Yes, $2,428 (41% win rate)
  7. 0xf7b3...eeb2 No, $2,014
  8. 0x122c...fbed Yes, $1,869 (58% win rate)
  9. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $1,830 (69% win rate)
  10. 0x9f66...3a50 No, $1,547 (73% win rate)

Israel closes its airspace by August 15?

17dIsrael closes its airspace by...?$6,149 tracked1 signalIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x IranRewards 50, 4.5, 20
Yes
17¢
No
84¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
85¢
66¢
46¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by August 15?

2d ago

$6,149 on No at 74¢

74¢84¢10¢