Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,124.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
Three-wallet No accumulation
Three wallets added $5.1K to No positions as the market moved down toward 16% Yes, providing a moderate coordinated bearish signal despite limited track-record edge.
- Three wallets added $5,124 to No at 80–83¢, with the market now pricing No at 84%.
- The coordinated buying aligns with an 8.5-point one-day decline in the Yes price.
- Most of the wallets already held No, so this is increased conviction rather than a fresh, high-confidence signal.
$5,124 on No
Top Holders
- 0x57cc...882c — Yes, $90,036 (27% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $29,132 (53% win rate)
- 0x152f...c7e7 — Yes, $15,000
- 0x93fb...3e4a — Yes, $12,945 (43% win rate)
- 0x6a83...4c59 — Yes, $11,717 (41% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $11,711 (71% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $10,199 (72% win rate)
- 0xf791...6cca — Yes, $5,667
- 0x7b66...3a93 — Yes, $4,430
- 0x75bd...1fea — Yes, $3,378 (38% win rate)
