Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,874.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

93% winner cross-market buyer

Sharp wallet with a 93% resolved-bet win rate and nearly $100k profit is buying Yes as part of a larger cross-market airspace-positioning thesis.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $99.9k lifetime.
  • They have positioned across 4 related markets with about $31.4k total exposure.
  • Buying at 8¢ implies a long-shot thesis with large upside if the airspace-risk view is right.

$1,290 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

88% winner buying quiet-market Yes

Sharp serial cross-market wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and $334k lifetime profit bought Yes on a previously quiet airspace-closure market.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $334k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 31 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • Their $1.6k Yes buy was over 7x the market’s recent 24h volume at the time flagged.

$1,584 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0x57cc...882c Outcome 13271459, $88,888 (38% win rate)
  2. 0x8d4b...07cb Outcome 13271459, $49,160 (44% win rate)
  3. 0xae7c...487e Outcome 13271459, $30,404 (86% win rate)
  4. 0x7e52...00f5 Outcome 13271459, $16,494 (79% win rate)
  5. 0xc040...beac Outcome 13271459, $10,537 (52% win rate)
  6. 0x152f...c7e7 Outcome 13271459, $8,218
  7. 0xa20a...ed3a Outcome 13271459, $7,909
  8. 0xe471...c87c Outcome 13271459, $7,264 (48% win rate)
  9. 0x6a83...4c59 Outcome 13271459, $7,000 (41% win rate)
  10. 0x758c...074a Outcome 13271459, $5,000 (14% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal arrives late

Covers 2 related markets

Iran closure comes early or late

Covers 3 related markets

Ceasefire arrives between July 24–31

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal after mid-June

Covers 3 related markets

Israel airspace closures will be temporary

Covers 5 related markets

Trump lifts blockade by April

Covers 8 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 2 related markets

Ceasefire holds through August 15

Covers 3 related markets

US announces Iran blockade soon

Covers 3 related markets

US-Iran meeting will occur

Covers 1 related market

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

ResolvedIsrael closes its airspace by...?$2,874 tracked2 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x IranRewards 50, 4.5, 20

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

58d ago

$1,290 on Yes at 8¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

67d ago

$1,584 on Yes at 9¢

Related Theses

Iran deal arrives late
Wallet_0xf0d5e trades 2 related markets
US and Iran sign an agreement …US and Iran sign an agreement …
Iran closure comes early or late
Wallet_0x9592a trades 3 related markets
Iran full airspace closure by …Iran full airspace closure by …Iran full airspace closure by …
Ceasefire arrives between July 24–31
Wallet_0x9592a trades 4 related markets
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
Iran deal after mid-June
Wallet_0x9592a trades 3 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Israel airspace closures will be temporary
Wallet_0x9592a trades 5 related markets
Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …
Trump lifts blockade by April
Wallet_0x9592a trades 8 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran keeps airspace open
Wallet_0x9592a trades 2 related markets
Will Iran close its airspace b…Will Iran close its airspace b…
Ceasefire holds through August 15
Wallet_0x9592a trades 3 related markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…
US announces Iran blockade soon
Wallet_0x9592a trades 3 related markets
Will the US announce a blockad…Will the US announce a blockad…Will the US announce a blockad…
US-Iran meeting will occur
Wallet_0x9592a trades 1 related market
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…