Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,874.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
93% winner cross-market buyer
Sharp wallet with a 93% resolved-bet win rate and nearly $100k profit is buying Yes as part of a larger cross-market airspace-positioning thesis.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $99.9k lifetime.
- They have positioned across 4 related markets with about $31.4k total exposure.
- Buying at 8¢ implies a long-shot thesis with large upside if the airspace-risk view is right.
$1,290 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
88% winner buying quiet-market Yes
Sharp serial cross-market wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and $334k lifetime profit bought Yes on a previously quiet airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $334k lifetime.
- They have traded across 31 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Their $1.6k Yes buy was over 7x the market’s recent 24h volume at the time flagged.
$1,584 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Top Holders
- 0x57cc...882c — Yes, $88,888 (27% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $30,404 (87% win rate)
- 0xc040...beac — Yes, $10,537 (52% win rate)
- 0x152f...c7e7 — Yes, $8,218
- 0xe471...c87c — Yes, $7,264 (48% win rate)
- 0x6a83...4c59 — Yes, $7,000 (41% win rate)
- 0x8df9...c22b — Yes, $4,218
- 0x8c66...44f3 — Yes, $3,556 (85% win rate)
- 0x1c5d...63ed — Yes, $3,166 (43% win rate)
- 0x4994...b031 — Yes, $2,935 (67% win rate)
Related Theses
Ceasefire arrives between July 24–31
Covers 4 related markets
Iran deal arrives late
Covers 2 related markets
Iran deal after mid-June
Covers 3 related markets
Iran closes airspace, reopens by September
Covers 4 related markets
Israel airspace closures will be temporary
Covers 5 related markets
Trump lifts blockade by April
Covers 8 related markets
Trump stays silent on UFC
Covers 1 related market
Trump restarts Project Freedom
Covers 1 related market
Next James Bond announced
Covers 1 related market
No Iran deal by June
Covers 1 related market
