Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by July 15, resolving Yes if commercial aviation is broadly suspended across all or most Israeli airspace. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,584 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including a recent quiet-market Yes buy from an 88% winner. The market resolves based on whether a qualifying closure occurs by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,584.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

88% winner buying quiet-market Yes

Sharp serial cross-market wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and $334k lifetime profit bought Yes on a previously quiet airspace-closure market.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $334k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 31 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • Their $1.6k Yes buy was over 7x the market’s recent 24h volume at the time flagged.

$1,584 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe1e1...d250 No, $20,000 (100% win rate)
  2. 0x9592...a7b8 Yes, $15,000 (93% win rate)
  3. 0xc662...b919 No, $4,000 (66% win rate)
  4. 0xc040...beac Yes, $2,711 (43% win rate)
  5. 0xae7c...487e Yes, $2,566 (87% win rate)
  6. 0xa20a...ed3a Yes, $1,372
  7. 0xb886...81b3 Yes, $1,220 (54% win rate)
  8. 0x0bfb...26a7 Yes, $1,128
  9. 0x836f...906e No, $689 (100% win rate)
  10. 0x4b9c...c182 Yes, $592

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Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

27dIsrael closes its airspace by...?$1,584 tracked1 signalIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x IranRewards 50, 4.5, 20
Yes
11¢
No
90¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
96¢
85¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

1h ago

$1,584 on Yes at 9¢

9¢11¢2¢

Related Theses