Part of: Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following groups of parties wins a combined total of 61 seats or more in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election: (a) The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu; or (b) Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,803.
Categories: World, Israel, Politics, Elections, Israel Election, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable bettor with 80% wins across 265 resolved trades is taking a fresh position on No and has a long history of cross-market activity.
- This bettor has won 80% of 265 resolved trades and earned about $5.1M.
- They have traded across 227 events, and this alert shows a fresh $1,545 bet on No at 86¢.
$1,545 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable serial trader adding to No
A historically profitable trader with a 93% win rate is adding to a sizable No position, and the trade accounts for about 70% of 24-hour volume.
- This bettor has won 93% of 120 resolved trades and is up about $68,000.
- They added $2,258 to an existing No position, bringing their investment in it to roughly $9,824.
- The trade was about 70% of the market’s 24-hour volume; entry was 89¢, though No is now 84¢.
$2,258 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Related Theses
Netanyahu remains in office
Covers 2 related markets
US-Iran peace deal coming
Covers 9 related markets
Iran ceasefire collapses by June
Covers 6 related markets
Democrats sweep Congress in 2026
Covers 2 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 4 related markets
Iran deal announced by May
Covers 7 related markets
US-Iran meeting on April 21
Covers 10 related markets
Porter, Steyer or Becerra wins
Covers 3 related markets
