Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,280.

Categories: Middle East, World, Yemen, Israel, Geopolitics, Military Strikes, Regional Spillover, strike, Houthis

Notable Trades

Profitable macro bettor buying No

A proven cross-market bettor with 291 resolved trades and $34.5k profit made a relatively large buy in a quiet geopolitical market, suggesting measured conviction despite the modest composite score.

  • This bettor has 291 resolved trades, wins 70% of them, and is up $34.5k overall
  • Their $1.3k buy was nearly 2x this market's full 24-hour volume, showing real conviction in a quiet market
  • They bought No at 76¢ in a geopolitical market with solid liquidity and a tight spread, suggesting a deliberate entry rather than a random punt

$1,280 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $4,644 (70% win rate)
  2. 0x4e42...49ed Yes, $4,308 (61% win rate)
  3. 0xb5f3...b4ce Yes, $2,562
  4. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $1,769 (64% win rate)
  5. 0x77c8...bc8c No, $1,246 (29% win rate)
  6. 0xbef6...f2f9 No, $1,124 (38% win rate)
  7. 0xea79...a9cc Yes, $1,000 (68% win rate)
  8. 0x63e3...f341 No, $994 (38% win rate)
  9. 0xb59b...916b Yes, $778
  10. 0xe738...df65 No, $700 (68% win rate)

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Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?

34d$1,280 tracked1 signalMiddle EastWorldYemenIsraelGeopoliticsMilitary StrikesRegional SpilloverstrikeHouthis
Yes
23¢
No
77¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
79¢
69¢
60¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?

3h ago

$1,280 on No at 76¢

76¢77¢1¢

Related Theses