Part of: Israel military action against Yemen by...?
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,129.
Categories: Middle East, World, Yemen, Israel, Geopolitics, Military Strikes, Regional Spillover, strike, Houthis
Notable Trades
Profitable serial geopolitics trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding $2.8k to No on a quiet geopolitical market, including a well-timed 75¢ entry that has already moved to 90¢.
- This bettor wins 70% of resolved trades and is up $38k across nearly 300 bets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 37 events and $174k in tracked volume.
- Their 75¢ No entry has already moved to 90¢, suggesting they caught a strong repricing early.
$2,849 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable macro bettor buying No
A proven cross-market bettor with 291 resolved trades and $34.5k profit made a relatively large buy in a quiet geopolitical market, suggesting measured conviction despite the modest composite score.
- This bettor has 291 resolved trades, wins 70% of them, and is up $34.5k overall
- Their $1.3k buy was nearly 2x this market's full 24-hour volume, showing real conviction in a quiet market
- They bought No at 76¢ in a geopolitical market with solid liquidity and a tight spread, suggesting a deliberate entry rather than a random punt
$1,280 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Related Theses
Iranian blockade will persist
Covers 6 related markets
Mojtaba remains out of sight
Covers 3 related markets
