Israel military action against Yemen by...?
13 signals across 2 markets · $23,756 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket prediction markets on whether Israel will initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil by specific 2026 deadlines. Traders are pricing separate outcomes for May 31 and June 30, with recent smart money activity led by profitable geopolitics and macro bettors leaning into “No” positions.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable cross-market geopolitical bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a quiet geopolitical market with a bet far larger than recent daily volume.
$1,800Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 10.0 - Profitable serial geopolitics trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding $2.8k to No on a quiet geopolitical market, including a well-timed 75¢ entry that has already moved to 90¢.
$2,849Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 7.0 - Sharp serial cross-market bettor
Sharp cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate and +$570k lifetime P&L bought No on an active geopolitical market.
$1,169Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 6.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Sharp profitable wallet with an 81% resolved-bet win rate and extensive cross-market history bought No on a geopolitics market despite recent Yes momentum.
$1,527Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 6.0 - 82% winner fading spike
Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market bettor bought No at 70¢, fading a major Yes price spike on a geopolitics market.
$1,739Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 6.0 - Profitable geopolitical specialist
Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market bettor bought No at 80¢ on a geopolitical market, with an 81% resolved-bet win rate and $570k lifetime profit.
$2,251Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 6.0 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $253k lifetime profit is buying No against recent Yes momentum.
$1,643Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% resolved-bet win rate is fading the sharp move toward Yes by buying No.
$1,357Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 5.0 - Profitable macro bettor buying No
A proven cross-market bettor with 291 resolved trades and $34.5k profit made a relatively large buy in a quiet geopolitical market, suggesting measured conviction despite the modest composite score.
$1,280Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitically meaningful market with strong recent upward momentum.
$1,040Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$6,686 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 81% wins
- 0xb4f259…e5fa$5,929 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 71% wins
- 0x60a92c…5a71$3,100 · 1 market · 1 alert · 49% wins
- 0xc96e52…f1f9$3,000 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 79% wins
- 0xbf4d20…33ed$2,501 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0x3c4f0a…831e$1,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0xd44e97…67e2$1,040 · 1 market · 1 alert · 61% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for an Israel strike on Yemen?
This event hub aggregates the related Polymarket markets for whether Israel strikes Yemen by May 31, 2026 and by June 30, 2026. The live odds can move as regional conflict news, Israeli military statements, Houthi activity, and broader Middle East risk change.
What outcomes are being traded in this event?
The child markets ask whether Israel will launch a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Yemeni territory or an official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed deadlines. Each market resolves Yes if the strike happens by its cutoff time, and No otherwise.
What is smart money doing on this Israel-Yemen market?
PolySpotter has tracked several smart money signals across the event, including activity from profitable cross-market geopolitical bettors, a serial geopolitics trader, and a profitable macro bettor buying No. That suggests some experienced traders are positioning against a qualifying Israeli strike before the listed deadlines, though positions can change quickly.
When does this Israel military action against Yemen event resolve?
The event includes markets with different deadlines, including May 31, 2026 and June 30, 2026. Each market resolves based on whether a qualifying Israeli strike occurs by 11:59 PM Israeli local time on its listed date.
Where can I track Israel-Yemen prediction market movement?
You can use this PolySpotter event page to monitor the related Polymarket odds, child markets, smart money alerts, and changes in trader positioning for the Israel military action against Yemen event.