Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Israel and Hezbollah will reach an official ceasefire agreement by April 15, 2026. It resolves Yes only if there is a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement by the deadline, not merely informal de-escalation or backchannel talks. PolySpotter tracks the latest market odds, resolution details, and smart money signals for traders following Middle East geopolitics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,538.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Lebanon

Notable Trades

88% win-rate thesis trader

A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is building a broader thesis across three related ceasefire markets and just bought Yes at 38¢.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $380k lifetime
  • They have put $24.4k across 3 related markets in the same event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought Yes at 38¢ while the market now sits around 39¢, suggesting they see meaningful upside before April 2026

$1,538 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $13,554 (88% win rate)
  2. 0xbf4d...33ed No, $4,787
  3. 0x60a9...5a71 No, $2,884 (50% win rate)
  4. 0x6d9f...9790 Yes, $2,700 (71% win rate)
  5. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $2,434 (66% win rate)
  6. 0x77b0...ba0b No, $2,142 (56% win rate)
  7. 0x60c2...c89a No, $1,564
  8. 0x1dd1...a156 No, $1,132
  9. 0x3096...58a3 No, $1,056 (72% win rate)
  10. 0x4a2b...af20 No, $1,011 (38% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

4d$1,538 tracked1 signalIranIsraelGeopoliticsIran CeasefireLebanon
Yes
35¢
No
65¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

Notable Trades

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

2h ago

$1,538 on Yes at 38¢

38¢35¢3¢

Related Theses

Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Odds on Polymarket | PolySpotter