Part of: Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether authorized representatives of Israel and Lebanon will hold an official diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves Yes if such a meeting occurs and No otherwise; current odds are not provided in the available market data. PolySpotter tracks $1,558 in smart money and one signal, including a recent buy of No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,558.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Sharp serial trader buys No

A proven, highly profitable bettor with a 78% win rate and substantial edge made a fresh $1,558 No bet while the market has been declining.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 92 resolved trades and is up $142,043 lifetime.
  • They placed a fresh $1,558 bet on No at 37¢, despite the market still pricing No near 35%.
  • The market has fallen 11.5% over one day and 18.5% over one week, supporting the bearish positioning.

$1,558 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbf96...9942 Yes, $5,174 (74% win rate)
  2. 0x524d...4495 No, $4,219 (78% win rate)
  3. 0x9a3f...914a Yes, $3,336 (59% win rate)
  4. 0x52f9...e1c7 No, $2,924 (59% win rate)
  5. 0x8a8b...375c Yes, $2,145 (39% win rate)
  6. 0x9e3e...f882 No, $2,097 (44% win rate)
  7. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $2,001
  8. 0x4478...02a4 Yes, $1,930 (60% win rate)
  9. 0xc7d0...1f8a Yes, $1,615
  10. 0x7495...7fcf No, $1,200

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Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

20dIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?$1,558 tracked1 signalIranIsraelLebanonPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran
Yes
95¢
No
6¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
96¢
75¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

3d ago

$1,558 on No at 37¢

37¢6¢31¢

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