Part of: Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,558.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Sharp serial trader buys No
A proven, highly profitable bettor with a 78% win rate and substantial edge made a fresh $1,558 No bet while the market has been declining.
- This bettor has won 78% of 92 resolved trades and is up $142,043 lifetime.
- They placed a fresh $1,558 bet on No at 37¢, despite the market still pricing No near 35%.
- The market has fallen 11.5% over one day and 18.5% over one week, supporting the bearish positioning.
$1,558 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0x6a83...4c59 — No, $4,309 (41% win rate)
- 0x524d...4495 — No, $4,219 (77% win rate)
- 0x52f9...e1c7 — No, $2,924 (61% win rate)
- 0xd7f1...73cd — No, $1,662
- 0x3825...04e8 — No, $1,255
- 0xd86d...ecf8 — No, $1,036 (45% win rate)
- 0x312b...cafe — No, $800 (58% win rate)
- 0xee67...67a6 — No, $682
- 0xe234...304a — No, $600 (66% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — No, $532 (76% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran blockade ends by September
Covers 7 related markets
Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
Covers 9 related markets
Iran ceasefire holds into November
Covers 5 related markets
Musk won't post 160-179 tweets
Covers 1 related market
No Mythos-Class Model by August 2026
Covers 1 related market
Scott Jennings won’t become press secretary
Covers 1 related market
Trump-Putin won’t meet in China
Covers 1 related market
GTA VI trailer won’t arrive
Covers 1 related market
Google Maps will rename Lake Ontario
Covers 1 related market
Brief ceasefire collapses before August
Covers 3 related markets
