Part of: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
24 smart money signals detected, totaling $161,090.
Categories: Khamenei, Iran Regime, Kharg Island, Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Politics, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
89% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A proven sharp wallet with an 89% win rate bought No at 89¢ on a major geopolitics market, making this a credible follow despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up about $11.5k across 27 settled positions.
- They bought No at 89¢, backing the base case in a real-world geopolitics market with over $1.0M of 24h volume.
- They have also traded another market tied to the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a random one-off bet.
$1,031 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
81% win-rate bettor
A profitable wallet with an 81% win rate and strong edge is backing the heavy favorite in a market seeing unusual volume, making this a modest but credible signal worth tracking.
- This bettor wins 81% of their resolved trades and is up nearly $4.9k on about $9.9k invested
- They bought No at 89¢ in a market with over 11x its normal trading activity
- The bet is small relative to market volume, but it follows a wallet with a proven record of beating the odds
$1,074 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
86% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 86% win rate is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis, and this trade aligns with that proven pattern despite the single-signal alert.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $572k lifetime
- They have placed $24.4k across 3 related markets in the same event, pointing to a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 90¢ in a liquid market, signaling a high-confidence view that this outcome stays unchanged
$1,223 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
94% win-rate bettor
A highly proven bettor with a 94% win rate sold No at 88¢, which translates to buying Yes at 12¢ on a geopolitically meaningful market.
- This bettor wins 94% of their trades across 574 resolved markets and is up $64k
- Their sale of No at 88¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢, a cheap asymmetric bet on a major geopolitics market
- The market is liquid and active, so this looks more like a sharp view than a random punt
$1,157 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
77% serial event bettor
A serial cross-market bettor with a strong 77% hit rate is re-entering the favored No side on a geopolitically meaningful market, signaling renewed conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- This bettor has won 103 of 133 resolved markets and has traded nearly $949k across 118 events.
- They are re-entering No after previously closing a No position, which points to fresh conviction instead of simple profit-taking.
- The trade is a sizable $6.4k bet on a real-world geopolitical market, entered around 89¢ on the heavily favored side.
$6,380 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable new wallet doubling down
A 6-day-old wallet with repeat large bets and early profits added another $4.1k to No, suggesting informed conviction despite a limited sample size.
- This 6-day-old wallet has already made 4 flagged large bets totaling $16.5k and is up $5.1k so far
- They bought No at 89¢, adding fresh size in a high-volume geopolitics market rather than a thin meme market
- The wallet is 3-for-3 on resolved bets, so the track record is small but strong enough to watch
$4,149 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
83% win-rate event trader
A historically strong 83% win-rate trader is re-entering this event thesis via the opposite side after previously closing a Yes position, which makes this a noteworthy cross-market geopolitical repositioning despite the modest trade size.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $302k across 59 settled markets
- They sold No at 89¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 11¢ after previously closing an earlier Yes position
- This wallet has traded 85 markets across 48 related events, suggesting a repeatable edge in complex news-driven markets
$1,655 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable event-thesis bettor
A proven profitable wallet with 138 resolved bets bought No at 87¢ while building the same geopolitical thesis across 3 related markets during a sharp volume surge.
- This bettor has 138 resolved bets, wins 68% of the time, and is up $32k lifetime
- They put $26.6k across 3 related markets in the same event, pointing to a coordinated geopolitical thesis
- They bought No at 87¢ in a market with a 15.8x volume spike, suggesting conviction as attention rises
$4,352 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
84% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 84% win-rate trader is making a fresh cross-market geopolitical bet here by effectively buying Yes at 10¢, a low-priced tail-risk position that fits a strong multi-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $303k lifetime.
- They effectively bought Yes at 10¢ by selling No, a cheap asymmetric bet on a major geopolitical market.
- This wallet trades across 45 events and 81 markets, which suggests a repeatable event-driven edge rather than a one-off punt.
$4,647 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
78% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong 78% win rate is taking the 84¢ No side in a geopolitically relevant market, making this a credible thesis-driven trade worth watching despite modest size.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades across 130 bets and has traded 117 events.
- They put $2.5k on No at 84¢ in a real-world geopolitical market, suggesting a thesis rather than a random punt.
- The market has fallen 15 points over the past week, and this trader is still backing the favored No side.
$2,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Top Holders
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 66760013, $308,075 (58% win rate)
- 0x0a85...fe9d — Outcome 66760013, $200,012 (26% win rate)
- 0xb1fa...1a14 — Outcome 66760013, $193,437 (22% win rate)
- 0xa3df...6f87 — Outcome 66760013, $138,109 (21% win rate)
- 0x9f5b...799c — Outcome 66760013, $122,794
- 0xcb9b...2b8f — Outcome 66760013, $111,820
- 0x0178...968f — Outcome 66760013, $107,786
- 0x64b2...a9f8 — Outcome 66760013, $103,634
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 66760013, $91,000 (86% win rate)
- 0x43a5...ea06 — Outcome 66760013, $86,147
