Part of: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
34 smart money signals detected, totaling $200,097.
Categories: Khamenei, Iran Regime, Kharg Island, Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Politics
Notable Trades
Sharp geopolitical thesis
Sharp profitable wallet with an 87% resolved win rate is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis, buying Yes at 7¢ despite the market pricing it as unlikely.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $174k lifetime.
- They have placed $22.8k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 7¢ is a long-shot position with large upside if the risk of losing Iranian control rises.
$1,290 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Cross-market geopolitical thesis
A modest but profitable wallet is building a broader cross-market geopolitical thesis, with about $35k positioned across related markets despite this individual trade being small.
- This bettor is up about $2,950 lifetime and has won 18 of 27 resolved bets.
- They have roughly $35k spread across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying at 8¢ implies a high-upside wager that Kharg Island control risk is underpriced.
$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable geopolitical bettor is building a multi-market thesis, though this specific bet is modest and already below their entry.
- This wallet is up about $1.0M lifetime despite betting mostly long-shot outcomes.
- They have put $34.9K across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- This Yes entry at 8¢ is a high-upside bet, though the market is now closer to 6–7¢.
$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 26%
$1M-profit longshot bettor
A highly profitable longshot-style wallet is building a broader 4-market geopolitical thesis, though this individual entry is modest and not confirmed by strong price momentum.
- This bettor is up about $1.0M lifetime despite a low hit rate, suggesting they specialize in higher-upside longshots.
- They have placed about $39k across 4 related markets in the same event, pointing to a broader geopolitical thesis.
- Entry at 8¢ implies a high-upside bet if they are right, with current market odds still near the low end.
$1,788 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 26%
Profitable cross-market whale
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis, buying a low-probability Yes despite modest standalone trade size.
- This bettor is up $1.0M lifetime on $8.3M traded despite usually betting long shots.
- They have put $35.7K across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 7¢ implies a high-upside view on a market currently priced as very unlikely.
$1,802 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 26%
Sharp wallet trimming No
Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and +$517k lifetime P&L is reducing a No position, which translates to a small contrarian Yes entry but may be partly profit-taking.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $517k lifetime.
- They have traded $96.8k across related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This is a sell of No at 90¢, equivalent to buying Yes around 10¢, though it may partly be profit-taking.
$6,649 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable bettor buys NO
A profitable high-volume wallet is making a fresh $27k NO bet alongside cross-market positioning and a major volume spike, suggesting a confident geopolitical view.
- This bettor has won 78% of 308 resolved bets and is up $217k lifetime.
- They have put $74.6k across two related markets, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The trade came during a 126x volume spike, with $27k bought at 90¢ on No.
$27,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable macro whale buying NO
Profitable high-volume wallet is re-entering a sizable No position amid a major pre-event volume spike and related cross-market positioning.
- This bettor has 1,019 resolved trades and is up $215k lifetime.
- They have put $83k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- Market activity is 126x above its historical pace, while No has strengthened over the past week.
$27,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable cluster buying NO
Coordinated No buying from three wallets, including profitable serial geopolitical traders, alongside a large volume spike makes this worth surfacing despite the relatively low-upside 89¢ entry.
- Three wallets all bought No within minutes, putting nearly $15K on Iran retaining control.
- One buyer has won 69% of 1,019 resolved bets and is up $215K lifetime.
- This market saw a 96x volume spike, with related-event traders already deploying $65K across 3 markets.
$14,945 on No
Profitable cross-market thesis
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis, with $65k across 3 related markets and a fresh $8.9k BUY No here.
- This bettor is up $213k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
- They have put $65k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- Entry at 89¢ is slightly below the current 90¢ odds, with the market moving toward No over the past week.
$8,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 29245464, $499,920 (86% win rate)
- 0x5e30...1ebd — Outcome 29245464, $332,872
- 0xb1fa...1a14 — Outcome 29245464, $211,490 (22% win rate)
- 0x3c8a...cb9f — Outcome 29245464, $134,488
- 0xcbe4...ee11 — Outcome 29245464, $116,195
- 0xb712...7069 — Outcome 29245464, $87,000 (60% win rate)
- 0xa9fe...f135 — Outcome 29245464, $52,617 (64% win rate)
- 0x1393...c5ad — Outcome 29245464, $44,369 (92% win rate)
- 0x633b...c29c — Outcome 29245464, $41,543
- 0xacc9...c790 — Outcome 29245464, $33,598 (32% win rate)
