Part of: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
This prediction market asks whether Kharg Island will no longer be under Iranian control by June 30, 2026. It resolves Yes only if Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority controls the island. PolySpotter is tracking $157,380 in smart money and 19 signals, with recent alerts showing sharp bettors buying No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
28 smart money signals detected, totaling $186,528.
Categories: Khamenei, Iran Regime, Kharg Island, Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Politics
Notable Trades
Profitable macro whale buying NO
Profitable high-volume wallet is re-entering a sizable No position amid a major pre-event volume spike and related cross-market positioning.
- This bettor has 1,019 resolved trades and is up $215k lifetime.
- They have put $83k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- Market activity is 126x above its historical pace, while No has strengthened over the past week.
$27,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable bettor buys NO
A profitable high-volume wallet is making a fresh $27k NO bet alongside cross-market positioning and a major volume spike, suggesting a confident geopolitical view.
- This bettor has won 78% of 308 resolved bets and is up $217k lifetime.
- They have put $74.6k across two related markets, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The trade came during a 126x volume spike, with $27k bought at 90¢ on No.
$27,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable cluster buying NO
Coordinated No buying from three wallets, including profitable serial geopolitical traders, alongside a large volume spike makes this worth surfacing despite the relatively low-upside 89¢ entry.
- Three wallets all bought No within minutes, putting nearly $15K on Iran retaining control.
- One buyer has won 69% of 1,019 resolved bets and is up $215K lifetime.
- This market saw a 96x volume spike, with related-event traders already deploying $65K across 3 markets.
$14,945 on No
Profitable cross-market thesis
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market geopolitical thesis, with $65k across 3 related markets and a fresh $8.9k BUY No here.
- This bettor is up $213k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
- They have put $65k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- Entry at 89¢ is slightly below the current 90¢ odds, with the market moving toward No over the past week.
$8,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable cross-market event bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a broader $105k event thesis, though this specific Kharg Island buy is small relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor has traded 66 related-event markets and wins 64% of resolved bets.
- They have $105k positioned across 4 markets in this same event, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- Entry at 12¢ implies they see a low-probability outcome as meaningfully underpriced.
$1,210 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Serial macro bettor buying NO
Serial cross-market bettor with a 74% resolved win rate is adding a $4.45k No position on a geopolitics market, though the edge is more track-record-based than market-impact-based.
- This bettor has won 74% of 1,019 resolved bets and is up $159k lifetime.
- They have traded across 158 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 89¢ shows confidence that Iran retains control through the 2026 deadline.
$4,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
93% bettor’s $108k thesis
A high-activity geopolitical bettor with a 93% hit rate is adding to a $108k cross-market thesis that Iran retains control, though lifetime P&L is negative.
- This bettor has won 93% of resolved markets and is putting $108k across 4 related markets.
- The trade backs the safer side at 87¢, implying confidence that Iran keeps control through June 2026.
- The market is liquid, so this looks more like a deliberate geopolitical thesis than a thin-market price push.
$8,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable Iran status-quo bettor
Profitable 78% win-rate wallet is building a multi-market Iran-control thesis, adding a fresh No position despite this being a liquid market.
- This bettor has won 78% of 308 resolved markets and is up $214k lifetime.
- They have placed $62.7k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran-control thesis.
- Buying No at 87¢ backs the status quo through June 2026.
$2,088 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable cross-market geopolitical bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market No thesis across the same geopolitical event, with $62.7k positioned and a strong resolved-bet history.
- This bettor is up $257k across 406 resolved bets and has put $13k on No here.
- They are positioning across 4 related markets with $62.7k total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Entry at 87¢ implies a lower-risk conviction bet that Iran keeps control through June 30.
$13,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable 78% lifetime bettor is putting meaningful cross-market money on No, though the trade is on a liquid long-dated market with limited urgency.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $211K lifetime.
- They have put $23K across related markets in this event, pointing to a broader No-side thesis.
- Entry at 87¢ is a low-upside favorite bet, but the wallet has a long profitable history betting similar prices.
$5,220 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $229,118 (69% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $134,062 (86% win rate)
- 0x3c91...9af7 — No, $72,000 (77% win rate)
- 0xa9fe...f135 — Yes, $66,126 (62% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — No, $55,000 (70% win rate)
- 0x485a...21cb — Yes, $46,306 (33% win rate)
- 0x1393...c5ad — Yes, $45,037 (80% win rate)
- 0xb1ca...1705 — No, $33,490 (59% win rate)
- 0xe5f0...dc1d — Yes, $32,678 (24% win rate)
- 0xc408...4675 — No, $31,853 (69% win rate)
