This bettor has won 76% of 530 resolved trades and is up $8,948 lifetime. They bought No at 89¢, backing the already-favored view that Díaz-Canel remains president through June 30. The bet was 72% of recent 24h volume, making it a meaningful position in a relatively quiet market.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved bets and is up $288k lifetime. The $1.6k buy was 57% of the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market. Entry at 82¢ implies a steady-status-quo view, despite recent movement against Yes.

Part of: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,380.

Categories: Politics, Cuba, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume serial trader bought $3.1k of No, a size equal to over half the market’s 24h volume, on a plausible politics information market.

This bettor is up $270k lifetime across 1,551 resolved bets.
The $3.1k No buy was over half of the market’s recent daily volume.
They have traded 375 markets across 165 events, suggesting a broad repeatable strategy.

$3,115 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

76% winner buying NO

Surface despite the weak low-activity signal because the bettor has a long profitable record and is buying No in a plausible politics market.

This bettor has won 76% of 530 resolved trades and is up $8,948 lifetime.
They bought No at 89¢, backing the already-favored view that Díaz-Canel remains president through June 30.
The bet was 72% of recent 24h volume, making it a meaningful position in a relatively quiet market.

$1,424 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

96% winner buying YES

Surfacing despite the weak low-activity signal because the wallet has a very strong resolved record and is effectively buying Yes on a quiet political market.

This bettor has won 96% of 266 resolved bets and is up $14.5k lifetime.
They are effectively buying Yes at 13¢ by selling No at 87¢.
The $1.3k trade is large versus roughly $2k of recent daily volume.

$1,275 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

90% winner buying NO

Sharp profitable wallet with a 90% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a quiet political market, with the trade large relative to recent volume.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved bets and is up $288k lifetime.
The $1.6k buy was 57% of the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
Entry at 82¢ implies a steady-status-quo view, despite recent movement against Yes.

$1,566 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%