This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $29.5K lifetime. They have put $4.8K across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis. Entry at 90¢ is a high-confidence bet that Mojtaba Khamenei will not be publicly seen by the deadline.

This bettor has won 85% of 1,055 resolved trades and is up $23K lifetime. They effectively bought Yes at 13¢, close to current odds and with large upside if a public sighting emerges. The trade is modest, but the market is news-driven enough that a proven bettor’s position is worth tracking.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $27K lifetime. They have put $4.8K across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet. Buying No at 89¢ shows high confidence that no qualifying public image appears by the deadline.

Part of: Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,091.

Categories: Middle East, Israel, Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market bettor

A proven 75% lifetime winner with broad cross-market history is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitical market via a SELL No trade.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $37k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $193k placed across 29 events.
Selling No at 84¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 16¢, a contrarian position versus the market’s 14–15¢ Yes price.

$2,277 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable sharp flips toward Yes

A profitable 77% win-rate wallet is exiting No exposure and effectively taking the Yes side on a thin, geopolitics-related market.

This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up about $29k lifetime.
The $4.8k trade was nearly 2x recent market volume, a meaningful move in a relatively quiet market.
Selling No at 86¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 14¢, suggesting a shift away from the consensus No side.

$4,818 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

77% winner buying NO

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 77% resolved-bet win record is buying No while also positioning across related markets.

This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $29.5K lifetime.
They have put $4.8K across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
Entry at 90¢ is a high-confidence bet that Mojtaba Khamenei will not be publicly seen by the deadline.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

85% winner buys YES

Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the wallet has a long profitable record and effectively opened a Yes position at 13¢.

This bettor has won 85% of 1,055 resolved trades and is up $23K lifetime.
They effectively bought Yes at 13¢, close to current odds and with large upside if a public sighting emerges.
The trade is modest, but the market is news-driven enough that a proven bettor’s position is worth tracking.

$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

76% winner buying No

Surfacing because a profitable 76% win-rate wallet is buying No and has related cross-market positioning despite only modest bet size.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $27K lifetime.
They have put $4.8K across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 89¢ shows high confidence that no qualifying public image appears by the deadline.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable serial event bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying No as part of a broader 3-market thesis on the same event.

This bettor has a long track record: 69% wins across 324 resolved trades and $29k in profit.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with 48 events traded and a $10.8k thesis across 3 related markets here.
Buying No at 87¢ suggests they see the public-appearance scenario as even less likely than current odds imply.

$1,595 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

0x7319...0299 — Outcome 10008874, $10,854 (25% win rate)
0x5e62...c577 — Outcome 10008874, $9,086
0x0845...6b6f — Outcome 10008874, $3,384 (70% win rate)
0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 10008874, $3,361 (73% win rate)
0x5ec9...e848 — Outcome 10008874, $2,995
0x0484...e0ee — Outcome 10008874, $2,600 (61% win rate)
0xaa99...dbbf — Outcome 10008874, $2,000 (62% win rate)
0x72fa...5e4e — Outcome 10008874, $1,680
0x4fec...135d — Outcome 10008874, $1,346 (89% win rate)
0x77c8...bc8c — Outcome 10008874, $1,251 (37% win rate)

Related Theses

Israel keeps its airspace open

Covers 5 related markets

SpaceX IPO under $2.2T

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal in early June

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Mojtaba remains out of sight

Covers 3 related markets

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?

ResolvedMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?$14,091 tracked6 signalsMiddle EastIsraelIranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.