Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,645.

Notable Trades

Profitable geopolitical grinder

A high-volume cross-market bettor with a strong long-term profit record made a sizable buy in a moderately thin geopolitical market, suggesting conviction worth monitoring.

This bettor has won 488 of 805 resolved trades and is up about $476k overall.
They've traded 171 markets across 86 related events, showing a repeatable event-driven approach rather than a one-off punt.
This $1.6k buy was about 66% of the market's recent volume, a meaningful size in a market with a 5¢ spread.

$1,645 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%