Part of: Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,641.
Categories: Geopolitics, Israel, Politics, Middle East, Lebanon, World
Notable Trades
84% win-rate cross-market bettor
A proven 84% win-rate trader bought Yes at 46¢ ahead of a sharp move to 58% in a wide-spread geopolitical market, making this a credible signal worth watching.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and has a strong record across 25 events and 32 markets
- They bought Yes at 46¢ before the market jumped to 58%, showing good timing on a 25-point move
- The market still has a wide 19¢ spread and only $7.7k liquidity, so a $2.0k buy shows real conviction
$1,996 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable geopolitical grinder
A high-volume cross-market bettor with a strong long-term profit record made a sizable buy in a moderately thin geopolitical market, suggesting conviction worth monitoring.
- This bettor has won 488 of 805 resolved trades and is up about $476k overall.
- They've traded 171 markets across 86 related events, showing a repeatable event-driven approach rather than a one-off punt.
- This $1.6k buy was about 66% of the market's recent volume, a meaningful size in a market with a 5¢ spread.
$1,645 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Top Holders
- 0xcf48...6f13 — Outcome 41504936, $10,983
- 0xd08e...2f7c — Outcome 41504936, $3,470
- 0x2d2c...17d2 — Outcome 41504936, $3,050
- 0xc3db...0f98 — Outcome 41504936, $2,431 (60% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 41504936, $2,000 (42% win rate)
- 0xe87e...252d — Outcome 41504936, $1,926
- 0x0a6d...1d0a — Outcome 41504936, $1,381
- 0xf34f...4d6e — Outcome 41504936, $1,232
- 0xc1d4...8e51 — Outcome 41504936, $1,173
- 0xc44a...8da6 — Outcome 41504936, $1,114
