Part of: Paris curfew announced by...?

Paris curfew by October 21?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of the City of Paris, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements or neighborhoods of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $27,681.

Categories: Paris, France, Politics, Protests, France Riots

Notable Trades

Seven-wallet funded Yes cluster

Seven wallets linked by a shared funder backed Yes with $6,160 as market volume spiked, though the 88¢ entry is now well above current odds.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder put $6,160 behind Yes, a concentrated directional signal.
  • Market volume reached 16× its historical average and Yes rose 51.7%, but current odds are 64% versus the trader’s 88¢ entry.
  • The wallet has a 65% win rate across 295 resolved bets, but that record does not clearly establish an edge at these prices.

$2,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet cluster selling Yes

Seven linked wallets and a volume spike make the alert notable, with the latest trades selling Yes despite earlier Yes purchases.

  • Seven linked wallets traded about $8,960 on this market, a coordinated signal worth watching.
  • The wallet’s latest trades sold Yes at 40¢ after buying Yes at 88¢; the alert also detected a 48% Yes price drop.
  • Trading volume was 12 times its historical average, though the wallet’s 65% win rate is not strong relative to its average winning price.

$8,960 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet funded Yes cluster

Seven wallets linked by a shared funder backed Yes with $6,160 as market volume spiked, though the 88¢ entry is now well above current odds.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder put $6,160 behind Yes, a concentrated directional signal.
  • Market volume reached 16× its historical average and Yes rose 51.7%, but current odds are 64% versus the trader’s 88¢ entry.
  • The wallet has a 65% win rate across 295 resolved bets, but that record does not clearly establish an edge at these prices.

$7,760 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet cluster buying Yes

Seven commonly funded wallets and a 16x volume spike support the Yes position, though the trader’s 88¢ entry is now under pressure and their win rate does not clearly beat their typical odds.

  • Seven commonly funded wallets put about $6,160 into Yes on this market.
  • Trading volume spiked to 16 times its historical average, suggesting a sudden burst of interest.
  • The lead wallet is up $211,750 across 295 resolved bets, but the current Yes price has fallen from its 88¢ entry to 64¢.

$6,160 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Proven 92% winner adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a 92% win rate and extensive cross-market activity added $2,000 to an existing No position.

  • This bettor has won 232 of 251 resolved markets and is up $168,451 lifetime.
  • They added $2,000 to an existing No position, bringing their investment in it to about $5,505.
  • The wallet has traded across 115 events, and its record shows a substantial edge over the odds it typically pays.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Related Theses

Iran ceasefire holds through December

Covers 7 related markets

Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses

Covers 2 related markets

Ceasefire holds through August

Covers 15 related markets

Iran blockade likely persists through 2026

Covers 9 related markets

Neither party controls the Senate

Covers 2 related markets

Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns

Covers 4 related markets

Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends

Covers 3 related markets

Fed will hike rates 25 bps

Covers 2 related markets

Team Liquid Wins Game 2

Covers 1 related market

Iran deal by June

Covers 4 related markets

Paris curfew by October 21?

Paris curfew announced by...?$27,681 tracked5 signalsParisFrancePoliticsProtestsFrance Riots
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of the City of Paris, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements or neighborhoods of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Paris curfew by October 21?

2026-10-19 17:24 UTC

$2,800 on Yes at 88¢

88¢→100¢↑12¢

Paris curfew by October 21?

2026-10-19 17:18 UTC

$8,960 on No at 60¢

Paris curfew by October 21?

2026-10-19 17:16 UTC

$7,760 on Yes at 88¢

88¢→100¢↑12¢

Paris curfew by October 21?

2026-10-19 17:10 UTC

$6,160 on Yes at 88¢

88¢→100¢↑12¢

Paris curfew by October 21?

2026-10-19 12:48 UTC

$2,000 on No at 72¢

Related Theses

Iran ceasefire holds through December
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 7 related markets
US x Iran ceasefire continues …US x Iran ceasefire continues …US x Iran ceasefire continues …
Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 2 related markets
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva…Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the …
Ceasefire holds through August
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 15 related markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…
Iran blockade likely persists through 2026
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 9 related markets
US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Neither party controls the Senate
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 2 related markets
Will the Republican Party cont…Will the Democratic Party cont…
Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 4 related markets
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 3 related markets
US ceasefire against Iran cont…US ceasefire against Iran cont…US ceasefire against Iran cont…
Fed will hike rates 25 bps
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 2 related markets
Will there be no change in Fed…Will the Fed increase interest…
Team Liquid Wins Game 2
Wallet_0xbbd9d trades 1 related market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs 1win - …
Iran deal by June
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 4 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…