Part of: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Pete Hegseth will cease to be U.S. Secretary of Defense at any point before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. It resolves “Yes” if he resigns, is removed, or an official resignation/removal is announced before the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,250 in smart money activity on this market, with a recent signal showing a profitable serial trader buying NO.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,250.

Categories: U.S. x Iran, Trump Cabinet, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, Hegseth

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader buying NO

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate is making a quiet-market NO bet larger than recent 24h volume.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 185 resolved trades and is up about $54k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 33 events, suggesting a repeatable political/event-market process.
  • The $1,250 NO buy is larger than this market’s recent 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet order book.

$1,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8633...a08d Yes, $20,665 (71% win rate)
  2. 0xcfb5...7d2d No, $16,587 (67% win rate)
  3. 0xea5e...ac9e Yes, $16,421
  4. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $15,839 (61% win rate)
  5. 0xaab9...a08d Yes, $12,385 (59% win rate)
  6. 0xc615...e982 No, $11,133 (40% win rate)
  7. 0xf6c9...1c13 Yes, $8,784 (71% win rate)
  8. 0x1c14...0869 Yes, $5,966 (63% win rate)
  9. 0xa8c6...44e8 No, $5,504 (67% win rate)
  10. 0x8597...daee No, $5,387 (81% win rate)

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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

165dPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$1,250 tracked1 signalU.S. x IranTrump CabinetPoliticsGeopoliticsTrumpIranHegseth
Yes
23¢
No
77¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
81¢
76¢
72¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

38d ago

$1,250 on No at 75¢

75¢77¢2¢

Related Theses