Part of: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
This prediction market asks whether Pete Hegseth will cease to be U.S. Secretary of Defense at any point before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. It resolves “Yes” if he resigns, is removed, or an official resignation/removal is announced before the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,250 in smart money activity on this market, with a recent signal showing a profitable serial trader buying NO.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,250.
Categories: U.S. x Iran, Trump Cabinet, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, Hegseth
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader buying NO
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate is making a quiet-market NO bet larger than recent 24h volume.
- This bettor has won 74% of 185 resolved trades and is up about $54k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 33 events, suggesting a repeatable political/event-market process.
- The $1,250 NO buy is larger than this market’s recent 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet order book.
$1,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0x8633...a08d — Yes, $20,665 (71% win rate)
- 0xcfb5...7d2d — No, $16,587 (67% win rate)
- 0xea5e...ac9e — Yes, $16,421
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $15,839 (61% win rate)
- 0xaab9...a08d — Yes, $12,385 (59% win rate)
- 0xc615...e982 — No, $11,133 (40% win rate)
- 0xf6c9...1c13 — Yes, $8,784 (71% win rate)
- 0x1c14...0869 — Yes, $5,966 (63% win rate)
- 0xa8c6...44e8 — No, $5,504 (67% win rate)
- 0x8597...daee — No, $5,387 (81% win rate)
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