What is the Putin out by 2026 prediction market about?

This market forecasts whether Vladimir Putin will no longer be President of Russia at any time before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. A temporary or permanent loss of the presidency can trigger a “Yes” resolution.

When does the Putin out as President market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026, at 18:30 UTC, unless a qualifying resignation, removal, detention, or effective loss of office occurs earlier.

What would make this market resolve to Yes?

It resolves to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time before the deadline. An announced resignation or removal before the end date can also immediately resolve the market to “Yes,” even if it takes effect later.

What would make this market resolve to No?

The market resolves to “No” if Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia continuously through the specified end date and no qualifying announcement or effective removal occurs before then.

What smart money signals are tracked for this Putin Polymarket?

PolySpotter tracks $25,771 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market. Recent alerts include a serial 73% winner buying NO, plus activity from profitable macro and cross-market bettors.

Part of: Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Vladimir Putin will cease to be President of Russia at any point before December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if he resigns, is removed, is detained, or otherwise stops holding the presidency for any period of time; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $25,771 in smart money activity on this market, including a recent signal from a serial 73% winner buying NO.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $154,992.

Categories: putin, Geopolitics, Ukraine, Politics, World, Russia, Earn 4%

Notable Trades

85% serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market bettor with an 85% resolved win rate made a $25.8k buy on No, though lifetime P&L is slightly negative and the entry is a heavy favorite price.

This bettor has won 85% of 321 resolved markets and has traded across 118 markets in 62 events.
They put $25.8k on No, more than the market’s entire 24h volume.
The trade backs the 90¢ favorite, so the edge is likely small but confidence is meaningful.

$25,771 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

81% serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market trader with an 81% record and positive lifetime P&L is buying more No at 90¢ on a long-dated political market.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $45K lifetime across nearly $6M invested.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 232 markets and 112 events.
Buying No at 90¢ shows they are backing Putin remaining president through 2026 despite the market’s long timeline.

$4,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable new repeat bettor

A repeat new-wallet bettor with early profitability is taking the contrarian Yes side on a liquid geopolitical market.

This newer wallet is 5-for-5 on resolved bets and is up $9.7k so far.
It has now been flagged 6 times for larger bets, totaling $21.4k in alerted positions.
Selling No at 88¢ is effectively a Buy on Yes at 12¢.

$1,760 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

New wallet $20k conviction

A brand-new wallet put nearly $20k into No on a long-dated Putin market, suggesting concentrated conviction but with no proven track record yet.

A wallet created 18 minutes earlier immediately bought nearly $20k of No shares.
The bet is concentrated and repeat-sized, with two $10k buys at 89¢.
This is a liquid market, so the signal is mainly the fresh-wallet conviction rather than proven skill.

$19,998 on No

Serial 73% winner buys NO

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 73% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L made a $14.4k NO bet during a major volume spike.

This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up $271k lifetime.
They put $14.4k on No, equal to about 60% of the market’s past-day volume.
Market volume spiked 96x versus its historical average, adding momentum behind the trade.

$14,387 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

LLM evaluation inconclusive

$10,000 | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable macro event trader

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 72% win rate sold No here, which translates to a fresh buy on Yes around 11¢ from a bettor with a long profitable track record.

This bettor has won 72% of 2,509 resolved trades and is up about $210k lifetime.
They trade across 80 related markets in 74 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven edge rather than a one-off bet.
Selling No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes near 11¢, a cheap asymmetric position on a major geopolitical market.

$1,780 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

A profitable wallet with a solid 75% win rate and $2.1M P&L just made a $76.8k concentrated buy on No that was over 5.4x the market’s entire 24h volume.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $2.1M lifetime
The $76.8k order was 550% of the market’s entire 24-hour volume, showing real conviction
They bought No at 88¢ in a political market with enough depth to take size, backing the high-probability side

$76,796 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%