Part of: Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether official representatives of Russia and Ukraine will hold a diplomatic meeting aimed at a ceasefire, peace agreement, or substantive de-escalation by December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if such a meeting occurs before the deadline, and “No” otherwise. PolySpotter is tracking $11,112 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $11,112.
Categories: Russia, zelenskyy, Politics, putin, Ukraine, Geopolitics, zelensky
Notable Trades
Profitable serial geopolitics bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor made an $11.1k NO position on a relatively quiet Russia-Ukraine talks market, despite the position moving against their 70¢ entry.
- This bettor has a long record: 681 resolved markets, 61% wins, and $238k in profit.
- They put $11.1k on No, a large stake versus recent trading activity in this market.
- The main entry was 70¢ and the market is now around 50¢, so the same view is available much cheaper than their first buy.
$11,112 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Top Holders
- 0xd44e...67e2 — No, $15,439 (61% win rate)
- 0x2970...e1c9 — Yes, $15,209 (39% win rate)
- 0xa0bc...d428 — No, $3,700
- 0xa39c...08bc — Yes, $3,000 (75% win rate)
- 0x3c4f...831e — Yes, $3,000 (81% win rate)
- 0x4478...02a4 — Yes, $3,000 (59% win rate)
- 0xbc48...47bb — No, $2,378
- 0xd99c...4015 — Yes, $2,279 (100% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — No, $2,259 (59% win rate)
- 0xb04a...acfc — No, $1,554
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