Part of: Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether official representatives of Russia and Ukraine will hold a diplomatic meeting aimed at a ceasefire, peace agreement, or substantive de-escalation by December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if such a meeting occurs before the deadline, and “No” otherwise. PolySpotter is tracking $11,112 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $11,112.

Categories: Russia, zelenskyy, Politics, putin, Ukraine, Geopolitics, zelensky

Notable Trades

Profitable serial geopolitics bettor

Profitable serial cross-market bettor made an $11.1k NO position on a relatively quiet Russia-Ukraine talks market, despite the position moving against their 70¢ entry.

  • This bettor has a long record: 681 resolved markets, 61% wins, and $238k in profit.
  • They put $11.1k on No, a large stake versus recent trading activity in this market.
  • The main entry was 70¢ and the market is now around 50¢, so the same view is available much cheaper than their first buy.

$11,112 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Top Holders

  1. 0xd44e...67e2 No, $15,439 (61% win rate)
  2. 0x2970...e1c9 Yes, $15,209 (39% win rate)
  3. 0xa0bc...d428 No, $3,700
  4. 0xa39c...08bc Yes, $3,000 (75% win rate)
  5. 0x3c4f...831e Yes, $3,000 (81% win rate)
  6. 0x4478...02a4 Yes, $3,000 (59% win rate)
  7. 0xbc48...47bb No, $2,378
  8. 0xd99c...4015 Yes, $2,279 (100% win rate)
  9. 0x9ca1...13b5 No, $2,259 (59% win rate)
  10. 0xb04a...acfc No, $1,554

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Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

162dRussia x Ukraine peace talks by...?$11,112 tracked1 signalRussiazelenskyyPoliticsputinUkraineGeopoliticszelensky
Yes
52¢
No
49¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
61¢
56¢
50¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

18d ago

$11,112 on No at 68¢

68¢49¢19¢

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