Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if both countries officially announce the agreement or credible reporting confirms mutual agreement; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter has tracked $1,575 in smart money activity and 1 signal on this market.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,921.

Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy

Notable Trades

94% serial cross-market bettor

A highly proven cross-market bettor with a 94% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire at 10¢.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 202 resolved trades and is up $17.3K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 169 events with over $511K deployed.
  • Selling No at 90¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢, a long-shot position with large upside if a ceasefire agreement is reached.

$1,575 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

96% winner buying YES

A highly experienced cross-market trader with a 96% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes at 10¢ on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire outcome.

  • This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up about $16K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 167 events with over $500K in total volume, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • Selling No at 90¢ is effectively buying Yes at 10¢, a low-cost bet on ceasefire odds being too cheap.

$3,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

96% win-rate serial trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved-bet win rate bought $7.2k of No at 90¢ on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.

  • This bettor wins 96% of resolved bets and is up $15.4k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 166 events with nearly $500k in total volume.
  • A $7.2k buy at 90¢ shows confidence that no ceasefire agreement happens by the deadline.

$7,196 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5056...c7df Outcome 10429411, $26,751
  2. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 10429411, $22,558 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x66d7...5b7b Outcome 10429411, $20,103 (88% win rate)
  4. 0xc615...e982 Outcome 10429411, $20,000 (40% win rate)
  5. 0x9859...1650 Outcome 10429411, $16,000 (61% win rate)
  6. 0xf913...969b Outcome 10429411, $10,623
  7. 0x36f4...ab1e Outcome 10429411, $7,149
  8. 0xe1b5...8378 Outcome 10429411, $4,000
  9. 0x5bb7...6f64 Outcome 10429411, $3,590 (24% win rate)
  10. 0x529f...ffd4 Outcome 10429411, $2,720

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

127dRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?$11,921 tracked3 signalsUkraine Peace DealPoliticsUkraineRussiaputinGeopoliticszelenskyTrumpzelenskyy

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

79d ago

$1,575 on Yes at 10¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

91d ago

$3,150 on Yes at 10¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

92d ago

$7,196 on No at 90¢

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