Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
This prediction market tracks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if both countries officially announce the agreement or credible reporting confirms mutual agreement; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter has tracked $1,575 in smart money activity and 1 signal on this market.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,921.
Categories: Ukraine Peace Deal, Politics, Ukraine, Russia, putin, Geopolitics, zelensky, Trump, zelenskyy
Notable Trades
94% serial cross-market bettor
A highly proven cross-market bettor with a 94% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire at 10¢.
- This bettor has won 94% of 202 resolved trades and is up $17.3K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 169 events with over $511K deployed.
- Selling No at 90¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢, a long-shot position with large upside if a ceasefire agreement is reached.
$1,575 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
96% winner buying YES
A highly experienced cross-market trader with a 96% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes at 10¢ on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire outcome.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up about $16K lifetime.
- They have traded across 167 events with over $500K in total volume, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Selling No at 90¢ is effectively buying Yes at 10¢, a low-cost bet on ceasefire odds being too cheap.
$3,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
96% win-rate serial trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved-bet win rate bought $7.2k of No at 90¢ on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved bets and is up $15.4k lifetime.
- They have traded across 166 events with nearly $500k in total volume.
- A $7.2k buy at 90¢ shows confidence that no ceasefire agreement happens by the deadline.
$7,196 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0x5056...c7df — Outcome 10429411, $26,751
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 10429411, $22,558 (69% win rate)
- 0x66d7...5b7b — Outcome 10429411, $20,103 (88% win rate)
- 0xc615...e982 — Outcome 10429411, $20,000 (40% win rate)
- 0x9859...1650 — Outcome 10429411, $16,000 (61% win rate)
- 0xf913...969b — Outcome 10429411, $10,623
- 0x36f4...ab1e — Outcome 10429411, $7,149
- 0xe1b5...8378 — Outcome 10429411, $4,000
- 0x5bb7...6f64 — Outcome 10429411, $3,590 (24% win rate)
- 0x529f...ffd4 — Outcome 10429411, $2,720
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