Part of: Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
This Polymarket-style prediction market asks whether three Russia-Ukraine peace conditions will all happen by December 31, 2026: a ceasefire, Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO, and Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia. It resolves to Yes only if every condition is met before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. PolySpotter tracks $6,063 in smart money activity on this market, including recent high-win-rate traders buying No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,451.
Categories: Sports, peace, Geopolitics, putin, Ukraine, Russia, zelenskyy, Parlays, Ukraine Peace Deal
Notable Trades
96% winner buying No
Surface despite the weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a 96% resolved-market win rate and is making a $6k No bet worth nearly 2x the market’s 24h volume.
- This bettor has won 24 of 25 resolved bets and is profitable lifetime.
- They bought $6.1k of No, about 191% of this market’s 24h volume.
- The market is fairly quiet, so this is a meaningful conviction bet against the peace parlay.
$6,063 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
93% winner buying No
Surface despite the weak low-activity signal because this is a proven profitable wallet with a 93% resolved win rate buying No on a geopolitical parlay.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $158K lifetime.
- They bought No at 82¢, betting the full peace-parlay conditions fail by the end of 2026.
- The market is relatively quiet today, so a $1.4K buy is meaningful against $3.2K in 24h volume.
$1,388 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0xe5c2...2ab0 — No, $80,860 (93% win rate)
- 0xd7f8...89e4 — Yes, $51,828
- 0xa02a...86c6 — Yes, $39,983
- 0x2f21...a65e — Yes, $15,094
- 0x4bbe...2cf3 — No, $14,233 (78% win rate)
- 0x0d19...8f93 — Yes, $11,712
- 0x0dbd...f4a5 — No, $10,700 (100% win rate)
- 0x9bdb...73d7 — No, $7,394 (96% win rate)
- 0x8d0c...5839 — No, $6,479 (74% win rate)
- 0x1104...7bab — No, $5,899 (100% win rate)
