What does the “Starmer out by May 19, 2026” market predict?

It predicts whether Keir Starmer will stop being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any time before the market’s deadline on May 19, 2026.

When does this Keir Starmer prediction market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether Starmer has left office by May 19, 2026. The market rules state that an announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline resolves the market to “Yes,” even if the departure takes effect later.

What would make this market resolve to “Yes”?

The market resolves “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be UK Prime Minister for any period of time before the deadline, including through resignation, removal, or another change in prime minister.

What would make this market resolve to “No”?

It resolves “No” if Keir Starmer remains Prime Minister continuously through the market’s end date and no qualifying resignation or removal announcement occurs before then.

How much smart money is being tracked on this market?

PolySpotter is currently tracking $2,580 in smart money activity and 1 signal for this Polymarket market, including activity from a profitable serial cross-market trader.

Part of: Starmer out by...?

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point before the May 19, 2026 deadline. It resolves “Yes” if Starmer resigns, is removed, or otherwise leaves office during the market period; an announced resignation or removal before the deadline is enough to trigger “Yes.” PolySpotter is tracking $2,580 in smart money activity and 1 recent signal for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and May 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,580.

Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Serial cross-market trader with a long profitable history is buying No on a Starmer exit market, but the edge appears modest given the 86¢ favorite entry.

This bettor has a long track record: 946 resolved bets, 58% wins, and $82K in profit.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $524K traded across 31 events and 51 markets.
The trade backs the 86¢ favorite, so this looks like a lower-upside conviction bet rather than a long-shot call.

$2,580 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%