Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $391,048.

Categories: Macro Geopolitics, Hormuz, Oil, ships, Strait of Hormuz, Economy, transit, Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Sharp cross-market winner buys Yes

Sharp wallet with an 80% resolved win rate and $3.86M lifetime profit bought Yes at 13¢ despite a highly liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $3.86M lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $5.6M across 224 markets.
  • Entry at 13¢ implies a high-upside bet against the current 86% No consensus.

$1,354 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

87% serial cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes at 8¢ on a liquid geopolitical shipping market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $223K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 85 events and 143 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Entry at 8¢ gives a high-upside position if Strait traffic normalizes before the deadline.

$2,488 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

New wallet buying contrarian Yes

Very new wallet is repeatedly taking contrarian Yes exposure on a high-stakes geopolitical market, with early realized profit despite a small track record.

  • This wallet is only 3 hours old but has already placed 7 flagged bets totaling about $14.9K.
  • It has an early profitable record, up $6.7K on one resolved win.
  • Buying Yes at 8¢ is a contrarian bet after the market fell 14 points over the past week.

$2,569 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

87% serial cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes at 8¢ on a liquid geopolitical shipping market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $223K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 85 events and 143 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Entry at 8¢ gives a high-upside position if Strait traffic normalizes before the deadline.

$1,333 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

New wallet buying contrarian Yes

Very new wallet is repeatedly taking contrarian Yes exposure on a high-stakes geopolitical market, with early realized profit despite a small track record.

  • This wallet is only 3 hours old but has already placed 7 flagged bets totaling about $14.9K.
  • It has an early profitable record, up $6.7K on one resolved win.
  • Buying Yes at 8¢ is a contrarian bet after the market fell 14 points over the past week.

$4,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Fresh wallet buying rebound

A brand-new wallet is repeatedly buying Yes on a high-volume geopolitical shipping market after already showing early profit, suggesting a concentrated contrarian position.

  • This wallet is only 3.5 hours old but has already placed $16.9K in flagged large bets.
  • It is buying Yes at 8¢ after the market fell 15 points this week, a clear contrarian rebound bet.
  • The wallet has one resolved win so far and is up $6.7K, though the track record is still very small.

$6,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

New wallet buying contrarian Yes

Very new wallet is repeatedly taking contrarian Yes exposure on a high-stakes geopolitical market, with early realized profit despite a small track record.

  • This wallet is only 3 hours old but has already placed 7 flagged bets totaling about $14.9K.
  • It has an early profitable record, up $6.7K on one resolved win.
  • Buying Yes at 8¢ is a contrarian bet after the market fell 14 points over the past week.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Fresh wallet buying rebound

A brand-new wallet is repeatedly buying Yes on a high-volume geopolitical shipping market after already showing early profit, suggesting a concentrated contrarian position.

  • This wallet is only 3.5 hours old but has already placed $16.9K in flagged large bets.
  • It is buying Yes at 8¢ after the market fell 15 points this week, a clear contrarian rebound bet.
  • The wallet has one resolved win so far and is up $6.7K, though the track record is still very small.

$4,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

New wallet buying contrarian Yes

Very new wallet is repeatedly taking contrarian Yes exposure on a high-stakes geopolitical market, with early realized profit despite a small track record.

  • This wallet is only 3 hours old but has already placed 7 flagged bets totaling about $14.9K.
  • It has an early profitable record, up $6.7K on one resolved win.
  • Buying Yes at 8¢ is a contrarian bet after the market fell 14 points over the past week.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

87% serial cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes at 8¢ on a liquid geopolitical shipping market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $223K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 85 events and 143 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Entry at 8¢ gives a high-upside position if Strait traffic normalizes before the deadline.

$2,333 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc851...cd2a Outcome 46130022, $1,152,446 (52% win rate)
  2. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 46130022, $871,702 (80% win rate)
  3. 0xc658...b784 Outcome 46130022, $404,314 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x7bc1...8db4 Outcome 46130022, $366,964 (67% win rate)
  5. 0xc5d3...d640 Outcome 46130022, $312,914 (82% win rate)
  6. 0xa022...77f8 Outcome 46130022, $280,000 (71% win rate)
  7. 0x3bef...d6e2 Outcome 46130022, $195,019 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x20f9...dad9 Outcome 46130022, $152,632 (81% win rate)
  9. 0xf0d9...e4ee Outcome 46130022, $103,983 (63% win rate)
  10. 0xc884...e17e Outcome 46130022, $103,301 (100% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

ResolvedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$391,048 tracked50 signalsMacro GeopoliticsHormuzOilshipsStrait of HormuzEconomytransitIranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

45d ago

$1,354 on Yes at 13¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

46d ago

$2,488 on Yes at 8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

47d ago

$2,569 on Yes at 8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

48d ago

$1,333 on Yes at 8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

49d ago

$4,500 on Yes at 8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

49d ago

$6,500 on Yes at 8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

49d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

49d ago

$4,000 on Yes at 8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

49d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

49d ago

$2,333 on Yes at 8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

50d ago

$2,667 on Yes at 8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

50d ago

$7,692 on Yes at 13¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$4,500 on Yes at 20¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$5,720 on No at 88¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$4,836 on Yes at 14¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$1,505 on No at 86¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$1,040 on Yes at 14¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$1,720 on Yes at 27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$1,991 on Yes at 14¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$6,800 on Yes at 27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$3,400 on Yes at 20¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$7,650 on Yes at 27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$5,100 on Yes at 27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$10,200 on Yes at 27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

51d ago

$11,050 on Yes at 27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$3,435 on No at 87¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$1,027 on Yes at 14¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$3,046 on Yes at 13¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$1,760 on Yes at 20¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$1,011 on Yes at 23¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$5,086 on No at 83¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$16,400 on Yes at 27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$16,400 on Yes at 20¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$2,995 on No at 86¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$61,206 on Yes at 23¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$29,640 on Yes at 20¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$13,000 on Yes at 21¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$4,091 on Yes at 22¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$4,400 on Yes at 27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$6,600 on Yes at 20¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$15,800 on No at 79¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$7,020 on Yes at 20¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$3,900 on Yes at 27¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52d ago

$24,043 on Yes at 21¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

53d ago

$4,510 on No at 83¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

53d ago

$3,370 on No at 83¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

53d ago

$3,690 on No at 83¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

53d ago

$41,291 on Yes at 23¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

53d ago

$5,000 on No at 82¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

53d ago

$7,380 on Yes at 20¢

Related Theses