Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
This Polymarket market asks whether Strait of Hormuz transit traffic returns to normal by the end of June 2026, resolving “Yes” if IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ship arrivals on any eligible date. It covers major vessel types including container ships, tankers, dry bulk, general cargo, and roll-on/roll-off ships, and resolves by June 30, 2026 or sooner if the threshold is met. PolySpotter is tracking $8,611 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, with recent alerts showing both Yes and No cluster buying.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $262,407.
Categories: Macro Geopolitics, Hormuz, Oil, U.S. x Iran, ships, Strait of Hormuz, Economy, transit, Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding bearish exposure by selling Yes, effectively buying No at 89¢, on a market already moving sharply toward No.
- This bettor is up $1.2M lifetime across 945 resolved trades.
- They have traded 96 markets across 57 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Selling Yes at 11¢ is equivalent to buying No at 89¢ as the market has moved 19 points toward No this week.
$8,611 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
88% winner buying NO
Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought $12.8k of No on a liquid Hormuz traffic market, making the wallet track record the main signal.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $3.1M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.7M deployed across 204 related markets.
- The $12.8k buy backs No at 86¢ after Yes fell 15 points this week.
$12,817 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
97% winner buying No
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has a 97% resolved win rate with positive lifetime P&L and is buying No on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 28 of 29 resolved trades and is up $2,304 lifetime.
- Their wins came at average 78¢ odds, but they have hit 97% of the time.
- They are backing No at 83¢ after Yes fell 19 points over the past week.
$2,875 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
88% serial cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying No on this Strait of Hormuz market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $239k lifetime.
- They have traded 140 markets across 83 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Selling Yes at 17¢ is equivalent to buying No at 83¢.
$1,322 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
85% winner flips to No
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 85% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, and is now buying No after previously closing a Yes position.
- This bettor has won 85% of resolved trades and is up $28k lifetime.
- They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying No at 83¢, signaling a clear view change.
- The market is liquid, but the wallet’s track record is the main reason to follow this bet.
$2,490 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
New profitable wallet buying No
A young repeat-flagged wallet with early profits is taking a fresh $1.2k No position in a high-stakes geopolitical market.
- This 12-day-old wallet is already up $1,078 on $8,322 invested.
- It has triggered 5 recent large-bet alerts, suggesting repeated conviction rather than a one-off wager.
- The wallet bought No at 83¢, backing the view that Hormuz traffic will not normalize by the deadline.
$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Repeat new whale buying YES
A 13-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits is taking a contrarian Yes position on a geopolitically sensitive market.
- This 13-day-old wallet has now triggered 8 large-bet alerts totaling $37.5k.
- The wallet is already up $1.9k on resolved bets, though the track record is still small.
- Selling No at 82¢ is the same as buying Yes at 18¢, a contrarian bet with about 5.6x upside if right.
$2,866 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Serial trader buying YES
A high-volume serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes amid a major volume spike, though the wallet’s negative lifetime P&L makes this more of a momentum/information-flow alert than a pure sharp-wallet copy.
- This high-volume cross-market trader has traded 39 markets across 25 events and is effectively buying Yes at 19¢.
- The market just saw a 107x volume spike versus its historical average, with Yes up 3.5% today.
- The wallet wins 90% of resolved bets, though lifetime P&L is negative, so the stronger signal is the timing and volume surge.
$7,878 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
19-wallet funded cluster
A 19-wallet funded cluster is taking a contrarian Yes position on a geopolitically sensitive market despite the bet being modest relative to liquidity.
- This wallet is part of a 19-wallet group funded by the same address, suggesting a coordinated operator rather than an isolated bet.
- They are buying the beaten-down Yes side at 16¢ after Yes fell 19 points over the past week.
- The wallet has a modest but positive record: 66% wins on 50 resolved bets and about $5.9k profit.
$2,155 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
4-wallet cluster buying NO
A known 4-wallet funded cluster is buying No on a geopolitically sensitive market with strong recent momentum in the same direction.
- Four wallets funded by the same address are positioned on the same side, with this cluster seen in prior runs.
- The lead wallet has 597 resolved bets, wins 71% of them, and is up $35k lifetime.
- The trade follows strong market momentum toward No, with Yes down 24 points over the past week.
$6,918 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0xc658...b784 — Yes, $393,380 (68% win rate)
- 0xc5d3...d640 — Yes, $312,914 (82% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $300,000 (55% win rate)
- 0x0c0e...434e — No, $267,947 (64% win rate)
- 0xc96c...6a98 — No, $266,881 (84% win rate)
- 0x5235...c04a — No, $184,715
- 0xb129...34bf — Yes, $166,868
- 0x182b...f3d3 — No, $164,964 (64% win rate)
- 0x20f9...dad9 — Yes, $152,632 (81% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $145,085 (47% win rate)
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Iran keeps airspace open
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Iran deal lands late April
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