Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

This Polymarket asks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to normal by June 30, 2026. It resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ship arrivals on any date before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Traders use this market to gauge geopolitical and oil-shipping risk tied to Iran, regional tensions, and global trade flows.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,002.

Categories: Macro Geopolitics, Hormuz, Oil, U.S. x Iran, ships, Strait of Hormuz, Economy, transit, Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market winner

A profitable high-volume trader with a 71% win rate across 386 resolved markets is adding a directional position in a news-driven geopolitical market after a sharp weekly selloff.

  • This bettor has won 274 of 386 resolved markets and is up about $259k lifetime
  • They trade heavily across 83 events and 155 markets, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought Yes at 65¢ after this market fell 23.5 points over the past week, signaling they may see the pullback as overdone

$2,002 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf1bf...11d7 No, $22,673 (48% win rate)
  2. 0x25db...28de Yes, $22,619 (51% win rate)
  3. 0x20b4...e8aa No, $22,099 (100% win rate)
  4. 0xf661...2259 No, $16,000
  5. 0x162f...798d Yes, $13,080 (71% win rate)
  6. 0x8072...0ef3 Yes, $11,632 (19% win rate)
  7. 0x3e0a...b9cc Yes, $10,728 (72% win rate)
  8. 0xd30d...acd8 No, $10,253 (100% win rate)
  9. 0x1a3f...6dea No, $8,595
  10. 0xab8f...06d6 No, $6,873

Related Theses

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

66d$2,002 tracked1 signalMacro GeopoliticsHormuzOilU.S. x IranshipsStrait of HormuzEconomytransitIranGeopolitics
Yes
65¢
No
35¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
89¢
73¢
56¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

52m ago

$2,002 on Yes at 65¢

65¢65¢

Related Theses