Part of: Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

This Polymarket market asks whether the U.S. publicly and officially announces that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect by June 30 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter tracks live prediction market pricing and has identified $3,478 in smart money activity across 1 signal for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,478.

Categories: Iran, Geopolitics, Middle East, Trump, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Experienced profitable cross-market bettor bought $3.5k of No, with a long track record across 378 markets and $254k lifetime profit.

  • This bettor has 1,603 resolved trades, wins 64% of them, and is up $254k lifetime.
  • They are a frequent cross-market trader, active across 166 events and 378 markets.
  • A $3.5k buy at 88¢ shows confidence that the ceasefire-over announcement will not happen.

$3,478 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe738...df65 No, $5,837 (64% win rate)
  2. 0xe9a8...60c5 Yes, $2,449
  3. 0x2cc7...2385 Yes, $2,000
  4. 0x5556...4d9e Yes, $1,250
  5. 0xc722...1334 Yes, $1,001 (34% win rate)
  6. 0xeca0...e8f8 No, $1,000 (51% win rate)
  7. 0xf562...4099 Yes, $543 (43% win rate)
  8. 0xa8c6...44e8 No, $500 (68% win rate)
  9. 0x1ee9...197f No, $337 (73% win rate)
  10. 0xe879...6d22 No, $250 (82% win rate)

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Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

21dTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?$3,478 tracked1 signalIranGeopoliticsMiddle EastTrumpIran Ceasefire
Yes
12¢
No
89¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

Price History — “No
90¢
87¢
84¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

2h ago

$3,478 on No at 88¢

88¢89¢1¢

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