Part of: Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,765.
Categories: Iran, Geopolitics, Middle East, Trump, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is effectively buying Yes as the market moves upward.
- This bettor has a long track record: 897 resolved bets and $375K in lifetime profit.
- They repeatedly trade related markets, with activity across 35 events and 82 markets.
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 27¢ while Yes has risen 11 points over the past day.
$1,470 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate over 185 resolved bets is buying No on the ceasefire market.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $54.8K lifetime.
- They have traded across 32 events and 45 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- A $3K buy on No at 81¢ shows they are backing the ceasefire not being declared over.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
81% serial cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 81% of 594 resolved trades and is up $70K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 28 events and $203K in detected related positioning.
- The bet backs No at 83¢, a high-conviction view that the ceasefire will not be officially declared over by the deadline.
$3,735 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable new repeat bettor
A 17-day-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early profits is buying Yes on a geopolitical ceasefire market.
- This new bettor is already up $3.9K after only 17 days on Polymarket.
- They have been flagged 11 times, with $15.1K total in similar larger bets.
- Entry at 22¢ implies they see a low-probability ceasefire-breakdown outcome as underpriced.
$1,082 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable cross-market bettor bought $3.5k of No, with a long track record across 378 markets and $254k lifetime profit.
- This bettor has 1,603 resolved trades, wins 64% of them, and is up $254k lifetime.
- They are a frequent cross-market trader, active across 166 events and 378 markets.
- A $3.5k buy at 88¢ shows confidence that the ceasefire-over announcement will not happen.
$3,478 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 78131779, $62,554 (69% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 78131779, $37,967 (73% win rate)
- 0x5e30...1ebd — Outcome 78131779, $30,431
- 0x6e37...2849 — Outcome 78131779, $10,976 (83% win rate)
- 0xcb01...ead3 — Outcome 78131779, $10,028 (6% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 78131779, $8,915 (76% win rate)
- 0x138f...657e — Outcome 78131779, $8,528 (67% win rate)
- 0xd8d5...c676 — Outcome 78131779, $8,345
- 0xcf7d...a286 — Outcome 78131779, $5,790
- 0x2c26...a23c — Outcome 78131779, $5,021 (100% win rate)
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