Part of: Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,765.
Categories: Iran, Geopolitics, Middle East, Trump, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is effectively buying Yes as the market moves upward.
- This bettor has a long track record: 897 resolved bets and $375K in lifetime profit.
- They repeatedly trade related markets, with activity across 35 events and 82 markets.
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 27¢ while Yes has risen 11 points over the past day.
$1,470 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate over 185 resolved bets is buying No on the ceasefire market.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $54.8K lifetime.
- They have traded across 32 events and 45 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- A $3K buy on No at 81¢ shows they are backing the ceasefire not being declared over.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
81% serial cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 81% of 594 resolved trades and is up $70K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 28 events and $203K in detected related positioning.
- The bet backs No at 83¢, a high-conviction view that the ceasefire will not be officially declared over by the deadline.
$3,735 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable new repeat bettor
A 17-day-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early profits is buying Yes on a geopolitical ceasefire market.
- This new bettor is already up $3.9K after only 17 days on Polymarket.
- They have been flagged 11 times, with $15.1K total in similar larger bets.
- Entry at 22¢ implies they see a low-probability ceasefire-breakdown outcome as underpriced.
$1,082 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable cross-market bettor bought $3.5k of No, with a long track record across 378 markets and $254k lifetime profit.
- This bettor has 1,603 resolved trades, wins 64% of them, and is up $254k lifetime.
- They are a frequent cross-market trader, active across 166 events and 378 markets.
- A $3.5k buy at 88¢ shows confidence that the ceasefire-over announcement will not happen.
$3,478 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $62,554 (72% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Yes, $37,967 (73% win rate)
- 0x5e30...1ebd — Yes, $30,431
- 0x6e37...2849 — Yes, $10,976 (83% win rate)
- 0xcb01...ead3 — Yes, $10,028 (11% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $8,915 (76% win rate)
- 0x138f...657e — Yes, $8,528 (67% win rate)
- 0xd8d5...c676 — Yes, $8,345
- 0xcf7d...a286 — Yes, $5,790
- 0x2c26...a23c — Yes, $5,021 (100% win rate)
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