Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
10 signals across 2 markets · $23,821 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether President Trump, the US government, or the US military officially announces that the US-Iran ceasefire is no longer in effect by June 30. PolySpotter is monitoring the market’s Yes/No pricing alongside smart money activity, including a recent signal from a profitable serial cross-market bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial cross-market bettor
Surfaced because a highly active serial cross-market trader with a long positive record is taking a Yes-leaning position across related Iran ceasefire markets.
$1,471Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 6.0 - Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is effectively buying Yes as the market moves upward.
$1,470Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is taking the Yes side on a geopolitical ceasefire market at 16¢.
$1,893Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate over 185 resolved bets is buying No on the ceasefire market.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 4.0 - 81% serial cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a geopolitics market.
$3,735Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 4.0 - Profitable new repeat bettor
A 17-day-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early profits is buying Yes on a geopolitical ceasefire market.
$1,082Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 3.5 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 895 resolved bets and +$374k lifetime P&L bought $5.1k of No on a geopolitics market.
$5,119Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial cross-market trader
A profitable, highly active cross-market trader is taking the contrarian Yes side on a liquid geopolitics market, though the stake is modest.
$1,147Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable cross-market bettor bought $3.5k of No, with a long track record across 378 markets and $254k lifetime profit.
$3,478Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Experienced cross-market trader with a long profitable history is buying No on a geopolitics market, though the stake is modest and the price is a heavy favorite.
$1,425Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x6d9fc3…9790$6,589 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 61% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$5,372 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 62% wins
- 0x8597ca…daee$3,735 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0x8c57f6…f939$3,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0x5ccf62…79d7$1,471 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
- 0x614dc8…1546$1,425 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$1,147 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0x2c263b…a23c$1,082 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
FAQs
What is the Trump US-Iran ceasefire prediction market about?
The market asks whether Trump, the US government, or the US military will publicly and officially announce that no US-Iran ceasefire is in effect by June 30. Traders can price the likelihood of that announcement through the Yes and No outcomes.
What are the current odds for Trump announcing the US-Iran ceasefire is over?
The live odds are based on Polymarket trading in the event’s child market. PolySpotter tracks those prices and highlights changes when notable smart money wallets take positions.
Who is betting on this US-Iran ceasefire market?
PolySpotter has tracked $3,478 in smart money activity across this event, including a recent signal tied to a profitable serial cross-market bettor. These alerts can help show where experienced prediction-market traders are positioning.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
The event is tied to whether a qualifying official announcement happens by June 30, 2026. If no qualifying announcement occurs by the deadline, the market is expected to resolve to No.
What counts as a qualifying ceasefire-over announcement?
A qualifying statement must clearly and officially indicate that the US-Iran ceasefire commitment is no longer in effect. General speculation, media commentary, or vague political rhetoric would not be enough unless it meets the market’s resolution criteria.