Trump out as President before 2027?
17 signals across 1 market · $409,352 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States at any point before the end of 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter monitoring $377,760 in smart money activity and recent sharp interest on both long-shot Yes and No positions.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Trump out as President before 2027?
A highly profitable wallet with an 84% win rate and strong long-run edge is making a fresh five-figure bet on No in a major political market.
$10,080Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 8.0 - Repeat new-wallet bettor
A 5-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large flagged bets totaling $37k and is now adding a smaller long-shot Yes position on a major political market.
$1,200Score: 5.5 - Trump out as President before 2027?
A very new wallet has repeatedly made large bets and just put $10k into a major political market, suggesting sustained high-conviction positioning worth watching despite no resolved track record yet.
$10,000Wallet win rate: 0%Score: 4.5 - Trump out as President before 2027?
A high-volume political trade from a wallet with a 90% win rate across nearly 1,000 resolved bets is worth surfacing, even though the market itself is liquid and the entry is conservative.
$13,483Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 4.3 - 82% serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering No with a $5.2k bet.
$5,170Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 4.0 - 82% serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced cross-market bettor with an 82% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No at 90¢.
$2,989Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 4.0 - 84% serial cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a modest single-trade size.
$2,856Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 4.0 - Sharp serial political bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and $331k profit bought No at 90¢ on a liquid political market.
$1,389Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.0 - 86% win-rate thesis trader
A proven high-win-rate trader with activity across 150 events sold No here, which converts to a Yes buy at 16¢ and is worth surfacing despite only one signal because the track record is strong.
$3,396Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 4.0 - Profitable sharp buying long-shot Yes
A profitable 75% winner with a strong edge record bought $1k of Yes on a major politics market at 14¢, though the sizing is modest relative to market liquidity.
$1,008Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x8c80d2…02c3$335,592 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 81% wins
- 0x21d0c1…ce91$24,004 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 82% wins
- 0xed107a…d2e5$13,483 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
- 0x258670…c893$10,080 · 1 market · 1 alert · 84% wins
- 0x312ee6…8604$10,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 0% wins
- 0xaf3909…3101$7,596 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 83% wins
- 0xe74995…f771$2,856 · 1 market · 1 alert · 84% wins
- 0x234e77…240b$2,143 · 1 market · 1 alert · 61% wins
- 0xf0d5eb…c665$1,389 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
- 0x1664c3…a0ce$1,200 · 1 market · 1 alert
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Trump being out before 2027?
The market price reflects traders' current implied probability that Trump resigns, is removed, or otherwise permanently ceases to be president before the deadline. PolySpotter tracks the live market plus smart money activity behind those moves.
What is smart money doing on this Trump prediction market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show mixed but notable activity: an 86% win-rate political sharp, an 86% win-rate thesis trader, a profitable sharp buying the long-shot Yes side, and profitable whales backing No.
What has to happen for the market to resolve Yes?
The market resolves Yes if Donald Trump resigns, is removed, or permanently ceases to be President of the United States for any period of time by the resolution deadline. An announced resignation or removal before the end date can also trigger Yes.
When does this Trump out before 2027 market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether the qualifying event happens by December 31, 2026. If no qualifying removal, resignation, or loss of office occurs by then, it resolves No.
Is this a bet on impeachment or something broader?
It is broader than impeachment alone. The key condition is whether Trump permanently ceases to be president before 2027, whether through resignation, removal, or another qualifying loss of office.