Part of: U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by...?

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,414.

Categories: Geopolitics, Oil, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

5-wallet Yes surge

Five wallets piled into Yes in a coordinated burst that drove a 40-point price jump, and several of the wallets have meaningful positive P&L across large sample sizes.

  • Five wallets bought the same side within about a minute, totaling $11k and pushing Yes up about 41 points
  • Several of these wallets are profitable over hundreds of resolved bets, including one up $284k and another with a 62% win rate
  • Most buys were aggressive at 72¢ to 88¢, which signals conviction even though the market has since fallen back to 38¢

$11,030 on Yes

Profitable thesis trader

This looks worth surfacing because a moderately profitable, experienced wallet made a large cross-market thesis bet and bought No at 64¢ before the market moved sharply to 88¢.

  • This bettor has 274 resolved trades, wins 69% of them, and is up about $24.8k overall
  • They put $6.4k into No and the market moved from their 64¢ entry to 88¢, a strong early markout
  • The bet is part of a 2-market event thesis totaling $11.3k, suggesting a deliberate view rather than a one-off punt

$6,385 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7780...763e Outcome 50524326, $593,500
  2. 0xaf22...afce Outcome 50524326, $393,330
  3. 0x84c5...710a Outcome 50524326, $150,000
  4. 0xf8c0...04b9 Outcome 50524326, $100,000
  5. 0x3ce0...59d5 Outcome 50524326, $100,000
  6. 0x44e3...c39e Outcome 50524326, $82,990
  7. 0x0b6f...c640 Outcome 50524326, $64,690
  8. 0xe83f...35fb Outcome 50524326, $50,000
  9. 0xe631...87b7 Outcome 50524326, $50,000
  10. 0x1d4a...5e84 Outcome 50524326, $50,000

Related Theses

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U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?

ResolvedU.S. forces seize another oil tanker by...?$17,414 tracked2 signalsGeopoliticsOilU.S. x IranTrumpIranPolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?

41d ago

$11,030 on Yes at 74¢

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?

45d ago

$6,385 on No at 64¢

Related Theses