Part of: Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
This prediction market asks whether Ukraine will officially agree to a peace or ceasefire framework to end the Russo-Ukrainian war that is formally endorsed by the United States by June 30, 2026. It resolves “Yes” only if Ukraine publicly agrees through an accepted official channel before the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,436 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following: 1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework. 2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials. 3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework. The primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,436.
Categories: Trump-Zelenskyy, Ukraine, Trump, zelensky, World, Politics, Geopolitics, putin, Ukraine Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market regular
A profitable serial cross-market trader effectively bought Yes at 20¢ on a quiet political market, making up about 65% of the day’s volume.
- This experienced bettor is up $157k across 147 resolved markets.
- They effectively bought Yes at 20¢, below the current 22–23¢ market price.
- The trade was 65% of 24h volume and follows a 5-point weekly move toward Yes.
$1,436 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
Top Holders
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $5,928 (82% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — No, $3,110 (48% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $2,564 (39% win rate)
- 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $1,508 (46% win rate)
- 0x6f56...075d — No, $1,126
- 0x449c...879e — No, $1,100 (61% win rate)
- 0x714b...d071 — No, $1,088
- 0x7c1e...d371 — No, $995
- 0x2758...a3af — No, $990
- 0x167a...91d5 — No, $949 (62% win rate)
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