What is this U.S.-Iran deal prediction market about?

It measures whether the UN Security Council will formally adopt a resolution endorsing or otherwise giving legal effect to a final U.S.-Iran deal by the stated deadline.

When does the UNSC U.S.-Iran deal market resolve?

The market resolves based on events through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, with the settlement date listed as January 1, 2027.

What counts as a Yes outcome?

A Yes outcome requires the United Nations Security Council to formally adopt a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates the final deal.

What happens if no qualifying resolution is adopted?

If the Security Council does not formally adopt a qualifying resolution by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

Is there smart-money activity in this Polymarket market?

Yes. PolySpotter currently tracks one smart-money signal totaling $4,260, including a recent alert about a serial bettor buying Yes.

Part of: UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether the United Nations Security Council will formally adopt a binding resolution endorsing, approving, implementing, or giving legal effect to a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market currently has one tracked smart-money signal totaling $4,260; live Yes and No odds are shown on the market page.

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,489.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Peace Deal, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Repeat new-wallet No bettor

A two-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and is adding to its No position, though it has no resolved track record yet.

This two-day-old wallet has made four flagged bets totaling $18,147 and already holds six positions.
It added $2,229 to No at 86¢, joining an existing $2,592 position as No now trades at 90¢.
The wallet has no resolved positions, so its early conviction is notable but unproven.

$2,229 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Serial bettor buys rare Yes

A highly experienced serial bettor placed a $4,260 effective Yes position in an exceptionally quiet market, making the trade notable despite only modest demonstrated edge over its entry odds.

This bettor has resolved 1,473 positions with a 91% win rate across 254 markets.
The $4,260 trade was over 2,000% of the market's recent daily volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a thinly active market.
Selling No at 85¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 15¢, a high-upside position if the diplomatic deal reaches the UN Security Council.

$4,260 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%