Part of: US forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
46 smart money signals detected, totaling $1,014,785.
Categories: Trump, Geopolitics, Iran, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A serial cross-market trader with a 94% win rate bought No at 88¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a credible sharp-style position despite only one signal.
- This bettor wins 94% of their resolved trades across 1,291 bets
- They trade heavily across related events — 77 events and 589 markets for $167k tracked
- Bought No at 88¢ in a deep geopolitics market, showing a high-confidence base-case view
$5,222 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A serial cross-market bettor with a 92% win rate just made a fresh ~$14k bet effectively buying Yes around 12¢ on a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades across 959 bets and has traded 116 markets in 71 events.
- They effectively bought Yes at about 12¢ by selling No, turning a small earlier test position into a much larger fresh bet.
- The market is deep and active, so a $14k bet from a proven bettor matters more than a random thin-market punt.
$13,977 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is taking a fresh bullish position on Yes by selling No at 88¢, despite the market being deep and otherwise calm.
- This bettor has won 883 of 959 resolved markets, a 92% hit rate across 71 events.
- The trade sells No at 88¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes around 12¢ on a fresh position.
- A $5.8k bet from a proven cross-market trader stands out more than the market’s flat recent price action.
$5,770 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate just made a fresh binary-equivalent buy on Yes at 12¢, and their broad profitable history makes the signal worth watching despite the modest size in a very liquid market.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved markets across 959 bets and has traded 116 related markets.
- Selling No at 88¢ is the same as buying Yes at 12¢, a cheap entry on a geopolitical market where informed views can matter.
- This is a fresh position change, not routine profit-taking, after an earlier small Yes bet was already closed.
$3,485 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A repeat new wallet has already placed over $55k in flagged bets and is making another sizable geopolitical trade, selling Yes at 12¢ which translates to buying No at 88¢.
- This 15-day-old wallet has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts with $55.6k flagged total
- It is betting against US forces entering Iran by March 31, effectively buying No at 88¢
- The trader is also active across 2 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
$7,369 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A serial cross-market trader with a 97% resolved win rate bought No at 83¢ in a major geopolitics market and the price has since moved further in their favor to 87%.
- This bettor has won 873 of 903 resolved markets, a 97% hit rate across 191 events.
- They bought No at 83¢ and the market has already moved to 87¢, confirming the trade direction.
- Their activity spans 3 related markets in the same event with $26k deployed, showing a coordinated macro view.
$3,536 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate reopened a sizable No position in a major geopolitics market and the price moved further in their direction afterward.
- This bettor has won 670 of 909 resolved markets and is up $152k overall.
- They trade across related event markets at scale — 79 events and 162 markets tracked.
- They bought No at 81¢ and the market moved to 87¢ after the trade, showing follow-through.
$4,413 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A new repeat wallet dumped $14.1k of Yes in a major geopolitics market, helping push price down sharply, which translates into a clear BUY No signal at 62-68¢.
- A 14-day-old wallet has already made 6 flagged bets and sold $14.1k of Yes here in three quick trades.
- Those sells hit 32-38¢ and helped drive Yes down about 25 points, showing strong conviction against US forces entering Iran.
- This converts to buying No around 62-68¢, with the market now still offering about 78¢ implied odds.
$14,143 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong 75% hit rate just opened a fresh $5.6k No position that is already well in profit, making this a credible thesis-driven trade worth watching.
- This bettor has won 186 of 247 resolved markets and is up $135k overall.
- They trade heavily across related geopolitical markets: 46 events, 64 markets, and $3.3M deployed.
- They bought No at 66¢ and the market is already at 78¢, showing strong follow-through after entry.
$5,584 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
A repeat new wallet put $10.7k into the bearish side of this geopolitics market, and the trades line up with a broader event-themed positioning pattern plus a notable price move.
- A 14-day-old wallet has already been flagged 4 times and just put $10.7k on the NO side here
- These sells of Yes at 32¢ and 38¢ translate to buying No at 68¢ and 62¢, showing clear bearish conviction
- The wallet is also trading a related market in the same event, while this market saw a 19-point move and a 10.4x volume spike
$10,743 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%
Top Holders
- 0x5d05...6320 — Outcome 42750054, $5,274,797 (50% win rate)
- 0xa7d1...b824 — Outcome 42750054, $1,277,287 (100% win rate)
- 0xaabe...bb8a — Outcome 42750054, $500,000
- 0x11e5...ee4d — Outcome 42750054, $422,477 (71% win rate)
- 0xf4fd...3852 — Outcome 42750054, $301,535
- 0xa25c...6430 — Outcome 42750054, $301,466 (83% win rate)
- 0x2f1a...bd15 — Outcome 42750054, $127,217
- 0x6136...6e51 — Outcome 42750054, $121,399
- 0x0468...7ac6 — Outcome 42750054, $100,000
- 0x79dc...b1a9 — Outcome 42750054, $100,000
