Part of: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $50,833.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Four-wallet Yes flow, 132x volume spike

Four wallets sold No for $22.6K in a 132.9x volume spike, creating equivalent Yes exposure, though two appear to be closing existing No positions and odds have not risen.

  • Four wallets sold No for $22,646 within minutes, equivalent to buying Yes around 12¢.
  • The trades coincided with a 132.9x volume spike and made up nearly half of the market’s 24-hour volume.
  • Two wallets had existing No positions that were closed, and Yes odds have not risen—so the flow may partly reflect exits.

$22,646 on Yes

Four wallets scaling into No

Four wallets added $22,254 to No within seconds, alongside a 171x volume spike, signaling coordinated conviction despite no clearly proven sharp track records.

  • Four wallets bought No within seconds, adding $22,254 to existing positions.
  • The trades coincided with a 171x volume spike; No was priced at 87¢.

$22,254 on No

Serial trader adds to large No position

A serial cross-market trader added nearly $5,000 to an existing No position, making a sizable bet relative to market volume despite no clear evidence of an odds-adjusted track-record edge.

  • The trader added $4,924 to an existing $5,600 No position at 88¢.
  • That single trade was about 60% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
  • The wallet has traded across 53 events, though its 79% win rate does not clearly beat its average winning entry price.

$4,924 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Proven 81% bettor backs No

A highly profitable bettor with 272 resolved positions and an 81% win rate is taking a $1,009 position on No, consistent with their repeated cross-market activity.

  • This bettor has won 220 of 272 resolved trades and is up $99,270 overall.
  • They placed a $1,009 No bet at 85¢, close to the current 86¢ odds.
  • The wallet has traded across 36 events, showing an established cross-market pattern.

$1,009 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

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US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?$50,833 tracked4 signalsIranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No”
102¢
95¢
89¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?

2026-10-21 03:16 UTC

$22,646 on Yes at 12¢

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?

2026-10-20 06:44 UTC

$22,254 on No at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?

2026-10-15 03:48 UTC

$4,924 on No at 88¢

88¢→100¢↑12¢

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?

2026-10-14 20:08 UTC

$1,009 on No at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Related Theses