Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
This Polymarket tracks whether the Federal Reserve will make exactly two 25-basis-point rate cuts during calendar year 2026. Larger cuts count in 25 bps increments, emergency cuts also count, and the market stays open through December 31, 2026 to capture any late-year action. Traders use this market to gauge expectations for Fed policy, Jerome Powell, and the broader economic outlook.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $12,378.
Categories: Business, Fed Rates, Jerome Powell, Economic Policy, Fed, Economy, Finance
Notable Trades
Profitable macro bettor doubles down
A profitable macro bettor with a solid 75% hit rate made a $12.4k high-confidence buy on No in this Fed cuts market, taking a large share of daily flow and reinforcing the same thesis across related markets.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $3.3k, suggesting some edge in event markets.
- They put $12.4k into No at 83¢, accounting for 59% of this market's 24-hour volume.
- The wallet is betting the same Fed thesis across 2 related markets with about $31k total exposure.
$12,378 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $379,930
- 0x60ab...3206 — Yes, $86,430
- 0x188d...dad8 — Yes, $40,510
- 0xdd9c...31a0 — Yes, $33,336
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $22,939 (48% win rate)
- 0x03d5...97af — Yes, $18,665
- 0xaf45...ec7d — No, $14,932 (75% win rate)
- 0x012d...1c53 — Yes, $14,384
- 0x9b2b...5752 — Yes, $12,894
- 0xa774...d9af — Yes, $12,588
