How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
11 signals across 2 markets · $57,841 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp macro bettor
A moderately sharp wallet with a positive track record is making a sizable macro bet and has also positioned across related Fed markets, suggesting a broader rates thesis rather than a one-off trade.
$7,117Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 7.0 - Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$6,017Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 7.0 - 91% macro winner
A serial macro trader with a 91% win rate and $1.9M profit is adding a fresh 40¢ Yes position across multiple related Fed markets, making this worth following despite the modest size.
$1,030Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 7.0 - Profitable macro bettor doubles down
A profitable macro bettor with a solid 75% hit rate made a $12.4k high-confidence buy on No in this Fed cuts market, taking a large share of daily flow and reinforcing the same thesis across related markets.
$12,378Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 7.0 - 91% win-rate macro bettor
A highly proven macro trader with a 91% win rate and $1.9M profit is building a cross-market Fed thesis by buying Yes at 42¢ in this no-cuts market.
$1,039Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 7.0 - Winning macro bettor
A moderately sharp wallet with a 75% hit rate is making a fresh macro thesis bet across multiple Fed-cut markets, which is notable even though the edge is not elite.
$4,672Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 7.0 - 3-wallet macro cluster
Three wallets aligned on No in a major macro market, including two with strong early win rates, and their buying helped push No from roughly 60¢ to 67¢.
$8,451Score: 6.1 - Fed thesis from winning bettor
A modest but still notable sharp wallet with a 75% hit rate is adding a directional macro view across multiple related Fed markets at 35¢.
$2,227Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 6.0 - New repeat whale buying YES
Repeat new wallet has deployed over $40k across flagged bets and is adding to the current momentum on a macro Fed market.
$2,298Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.5 - Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$2,459Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xaf458b…ec7d$34,871 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 69% wins
- 0x19974c…2e36$10,152 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0x9e928c…6929$2,298 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x56c9fb…0d9e$2,069 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 92% wins