How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
13 signals across 2 markets · $112,896 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket prediction-market odds on how many 25 bp Fed rate cuts occur in 2026, including scheduled FOMC decisions and any emergency cuts. Traders are currently focused on outcomes such as no cuts or exactly two cuts, with PolySpotter tracking $57,841 in smart money activity across 11 signals from sharp macro bettors.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial macro whale
Large $52k Yes buy from a highly active serial cross-market trader positioning across Fed-cut markets, though the wallet’s lifetime P&L is negative.
$52,234Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 10.9 - Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$6,017Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 7.0 - Profitable macro bettor doubles down
A profitable macro bettor with a solid 75% hit rate made a $12.4k high-confidence buy on No in this Fed cuts market, taking a large share of daily flow and reinforcing the same thesis across related markets.
$12,378Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 7.0 - Sharp macro bettor
A moderately sharp wallet with a positive track record is making a sizable macro bet and has also positioned across related Fed markets, suggesting a broader rates thesis rather than a one-off trade.
$7,117Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 7.0 - 91% macro winner
A serial macro trader with a 91% win rate and $1.9M profit is adding a fresh 40¢ Yes position across multiple related Fed markets, making this worth following despite the modest size.
$1,030Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 7.0 - 91% win-rate macro bettor
A highly proven macro trader with a 91% win rate and $1.9M profit is building a cross-market Fed thesis by buying Yes at 42¢ in this no-cuts market.
$1,039Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 7.0 - Winning macro bettor
A moderately sharp wallet with a 75% hit rate is making a fresh macro thesis bet across multiple Fed-cut markets, which is notable even though the edge is not elite.
$4,672Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 7.0 - 3-wallet macro cluster
Three wallets aligned on No in a major macro market, including two with strong early win rates, and their buying helped push No from roughly 60¢ to 67¢.
$8,451Score: 6.1 - Fed thesis from winning bettor
A modest but still notable sharp wallet with a 75% hit rate is adding a directional macro view across multiple related Fed markets at 35¢.
$2,227Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 6.0 - New repeat whale buying YES
Repeat new wallet has deployed over $40k across flagged bets and is adding to the current momentum on a macro Fed market.
$2,298Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 5.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x3a8aa3…7699$52,234 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0xaf458b…ec7d$34,871 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 69% wins
- 0x19974c…2e36$10,152 · 1 market · 1 alert · 72% wins
- 0x9e928c…6929$5,119 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 77% wins
- 0x56c9fb…0d9e$2,069 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 92% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of Fed rate cuts in 2026?
The live odds are determined by Polymarket trading across the event’s child markets, including whether the Fed makes no cuts or exactly two 25 bp cuts in 2026. PolySpotter tracks these prices alongside smart money flows so you can see how expectations are shifting.
What counts as a Fed rate cut in this market?
Each 25 basis point reduction counts as one cut. For example, a 50 bp cut would count as two cuts, and emergency cuts outside scheduled FOMC meetings also count toward the 2026 total.
What is the smart money doing on Fed rate cuts in 2026?
PolySpotter has tracked $57,841 in smart money across 11 signals for this event, including activity from sharp macro bettors, a 91% win-rate macro trader, and profitable bettors doubling down.
When does the 2026 Fed rate cuts market resolve?
The event is set to remain open through December 31, 2026, to include any emergency Fed actions late in the year. It resolves based on the total number of 25 bp cuts made by the Fed during 2026.
Where can I track the 2026 Fed rate cuts prediction market?
You can follow the event on PolySpotter to see Polymarket odds, child-market pricing, and smart money alerts for the main outcomes being traded around 2026 Fed rate cuts.