Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,442.

Categories: Economy, Hormuz, Iran, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Trump, Oil

Notable Trades

77% serial event bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 77% hit rate is putting $4.4k into No on a niche shipping market, and the bet is large relative to recent volume.

  • This bettor has won 77% of 1,032 resolved markets across 128 events.
  • They just put $4.4k on No, equal to 58% of this market's recent volume.
  • This is a fresh scale-in after a tiny earlier trade, with No bought at 87¢ in a market that fell 16.6% in a day.

$4,442 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Top Holders

  1. 0xae02...6d55 Outcome 24987078, $3,000
  2. 0xa510...1f80 Outcome 24987078, $537
  3. 0x1851...7016 Outcome 24987078, $467 (72% win rate)
  4. 0x0061...8fd6 Outcome 24987078, $200
  5. 0x1fc9...ace5 Outcome 24987078, $125
  6. 0x0603...8f62 Outcome 24987078, $119
  7. 0xf2e7...843e Outcome 24987078, $100
  8. 0x7468...3d24 Outcome 24987078, $65
  9. 0xba67...4d9b Outcome 24987078, $51
  10. 0x9300...ba45 Outcome 24987078, $33

Related Theses

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No US-Iran peace deal

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US will invade Iran

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Covers 3 related markets

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Covers 1 related market

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?

ResolvedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?$4,442 tracked1 signalEconomyHormuzIranGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzTrumpOil

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?

45d ago

$4,442 on No at 87¢

Related Theses