Part of: Claude Mythos released by…?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will release a Claude Mythos model by July 31, 2026. The market follows reports that Mythos is in early access testing after a March 2026 leak described it as a major step forward in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity. PolySpotter is tracking $5,273 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,669.

Categories: anthropic, Tech, AI, Claude

Notable Trades

Profitable event specialist fading rally

Experienced profitable cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes rally, with related positioning across three markets in the same event.

  • This bettor has traded 1,220 resolved markets and is up $263K lifetime.
  • They have a long cross-market pattern: 60 events and $1.48M tracked across related markets.
  • Selling Yes at 89¢ converts to buying No at 11¢ after Yes jumped 32 points this week.

$5,273 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Proven serial event trader

Surface: a proven serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a plausible AI release market.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 167 resolved bets and is up $34.9K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 26 events and 35 markets, suggesting a repeatable research-driven edge.
  • Buying Yes at 75¢ implies confidence despite already high market odds and recent upward momentum.

$1,370 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet with a long serial cross-market pattern is adding Yes exposure across related Claude Mythos markets.

  • This bettor has a long record: 1,220 resolved trades, 59% wins, and $263k lifetime profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 60 events and 126 markets totaling $1.47M.
  • They bought Yes at 73¢ while the market has moved up 4 points in the last day.

$2,891 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

Profitable serial event trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and $62k lifetime profit is buying Yes on an Anthropic release market.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 175 resolved bets and is up $62,388 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 29 events, suggesting a repeatable event-based edge.
  • Buying Yes at 73¢ implies confidence that Anthropic releases Mythos before the July 31 deadline.

$1,001 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Sharp serial event trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $5,000 of Yes on a plausible information-edge AI release market.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 175 resolved trades and is up $62K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 29 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market research edge.
  • The $5K Yes buy at 73¢ is meaningful in a market with under $5K of 24h volume.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial event bettor

A profitable high-volume wallet with a long serial cross-market history is buying Yes and has built a broader $15.7k position across related markets amid strong upward momentum.

  • This bettor is up $263k lifetime across more than 1,200 resolved markets.
  • They have $15.7k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought Yes at 63¢ while the market has moved to 68¢ after a 27.5-point weekly rise.

$3,134 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0xdb32...bbcc Outcome 89369562, $12,181
  2. 0xd590...5eee Outcome 89369562, $8,074 (38% win rate)
  3. 0xe57a...709d Outcome 89369562, $5,533
  4. 0xcc2c...2d20 Outcome 89369562, $5,314
  5. 0x6584...3843 Outcome 89369562, $5,000
  6. 0x6430...d6e7 Outcome 89369562, $5,000
  7. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 89369562, $2,000 (49% win rate)
  8. 0x0578...e1fb Outcome 89369562, $1,670
  9. 0x5d41...f09b Outcome 89369562, $1,000
  10. 0x897a...4194 Outcome 89369562, $891

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Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

10dClaude Mythos released by…?$18,669 tracked6 signalsanthropicTechAIClaude

A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Mythos" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Notable Trades

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

43d ago

$5,273 on No at 11¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

43d ago

$1,370 on Yes at 75¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

44d ago

$2,891 on Yes at 73¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

44d ago

$1,001 on Yes at 73¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

44d ago

$5,000 on Yes at 73¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

45d ago

$3,134 on Yes at 63¢

Related Theses