Part of: Claude Mythos released by…?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will release a “Claude Mythos” model by July 31, 2026, after reports that the unreleased model entered early access testing following a data leak. PolySpotter is tracking $3,134 in smart money and 1 signal on this market, giving traders a snapshot of informed activity around the potential Claude Mythos launch.

A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Mythos" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,134.

Categories: anthropic, Tech, AI, Claude

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event bettor

A profitable high-volume wallet with a long serial cross-market history is buying Yes and has built a broader $15.7k position across related markets amid strong upward momentum.

  • This bettor is up $263k lifetime across more than 1,200 resolved markets.
  • They have $15.7k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought Yes at 63¢ while the market has moved to 68¢ after a 27.5-point weekly rise.

$3,134 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0xdb32...bbcc No, $10,038
  2. 0x4e42...49ed No, $5,322 (62% win rate)
  3. 0xcc2c...2d20 No, $5,314
  4. 0xb100...6461 Yes, $4,811 (59% win rate)
  5. 0xd590...5eee No, $3,824 (36% win rate)
  6. 0x57c0...60c5 Yes, $3,216 (86% win rate)
  7. 0x3594...dc58 Yes, $3,029 (39% win rate)
  8. 0x0d15...c454 No, $3,000 (74% win rate)
  9. 0x6dce...4490 No, $2,854 (19% win rate)
  10. 0xbf93...2fd7 Yes, $2,712 (61% win rate)

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Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

55dClaude Mythos released by…?$3,134 tracked1 signalanthropicTechAIClaude
Yes
68¢
No
33¢

A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Mythos" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “Yes
84¢
68¢
51¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

5h ago

$3,134 on Yes at 63¢

63¢68¢5¢

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