Part of: Claude Mythos released by…?
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will release a Claude Mythos model by July 31, 2026. The market follows reports that Mythos is in early access testing after a March 2026 leak described it as a major step forward in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity. PolySpotter is tracking $5,273 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,669.
Categories: anthropic, Tech, AI, Claude
Notable Trades
Profitable event specialist fading rally
Experienced profitable cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes rally, with related positioning across three markets in the same event.
- This bettor has traded 1,220 resolved markets and is up $263K lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market pattern: 60 events and $1.48M tracked across related markets.
- Selling Yes at 89¢ converts to buying No at 11¢ after Yes jumped 32 points this week.
$5,273 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Proven serial event trader
Surface: a proven serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a plausible AI release market.
- This bettor has won 75% of 167 resolved bets and is up $34.9K lifetime.
- They have traded across 26 events and 35 markets, suggesting a repeatable research-driven edge.
- Buying Yes at 75¢ implies confidence despite already high market odds and recent upward momentum.
$1,370 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet with a long serial cross-market pattern is adding Yes exposure across related Claude Mythos markets.
- This bettor has a long record: 1,220 resolved trades, 59% wins, and $263k lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 60 events and 126 markets totaling $1.47M.
- They bought Yes at 73¢ while the market has moved up 4 points in the last day.
$2,891 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable serial event trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and $62k lifetime profit is buying Yes on an Anthropic release market.
- This bettor has won 75% of 175 resolved bets and is up $62,388 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 29 events, suggesting a repeatable event-based edge.
- Buying Yes at 73¢ implies confidence that Anthropic releases Mythos before the July 31 deadline.
$1,001 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Sharp serial event trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $5,000 of Yes on a plausible information-edge AI release market.
- This bettor has won 75% of 175 resolved trades and is up $62K lifetime.
- They have traded across 29 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market research edge.
- The $5K Yes buy at 73¢ is meaningful in a market with under $5K of 24h volume.
$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial event bettor
A profitable high-volume wallet with a long serial cross-market history is buying Yes and has built a broader $15.7k position across related markets amid strong upward momentum.
- This bettor is up $263k lifetime across more than 1,200 resolved markets.
- They have $15.7k positioned across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 63¢ while the market has moved to 68¢ after a 27.5-point weekly rise.
$3,134 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
Top Holders
- 0xdb32...bbcc — Outcome 89369562, $12,181
- 0xd590...5eee — Outcome 89369562, $8,074 (38% win rate)
- 0xe57a...709d — Outcome 89369562, $5,533
- 0xcc2c...2d20 — Outcome 89369562, $5,314
- 0x6584...3843 — Outcome 89369562, $5,000
- 0x6430...d6e7 — Outcome 89369562, $5,000
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 89369562, $2,000 (49% win rate)
- 0x0578...e1fb — Outcome 89369562, $1,670
- 0x5d41...f09b — Outcome 89369562, $1,000
- 0x897a...4194 — Outcome 89369562, $891
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