Part of: Claude Mythos released by…?
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will release a “Claude Mythos” model by June 10, 2026, following reports that the unreleased model entered early access testing after a data leak. PolySpotter is tracking $2,991 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, including a profitable serial cross-market bettor.
A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify towards this market’s resolution. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,991.
Categories: anthropic, Tech, AI, Claude
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is making a meaningful Yes bet on a thin, near-deadline AI release market.
- This bettor has won 68% of 686 resolved trades and is up $317k lifetime.
- They have traded 154 markets across 89 events, showing a long-running cross-market strategy.
- The $3k Yes buy is about 31% of the market’s 24h volume, adding conviction in a relatively quiet market.
$2,991 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0xf1f9...1245 — No, $4,000 (56% win rate)
- 0xc6dd...4b9f — Yes, $3,988 (68% win rate)
- 0xbf93...2fd7 — Yes, $2,643 (59% win rate)
- 0xef7a...db70 — No, $2,072 (71% win rate)
- 0x0f2b...665a — Yes, $2,000
- 0xe8a2...54c2 — No, $1,496 (48% win rate)
- 0x58a1...9d94 — No, $1,240
- 0xb582...889c — Yes, $1,000 (97% win rate)
- 0x2224...23e1 — No, $1,000 (92% win rate)
- 0x8936...d010 — No, $1,000
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