Part of: Gulf State military action against Iran by...?

Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $6,029.

Categories: Israel x Iran, Oil, U.S. x Iran, UAE, Iran Offensive Strikes, Kuwait, Military Strikes, Bahrain, Geopolitics, Iran, Middle East, Regional Spillover, Oman, saudi arabia, qatar, strike

Notable Trades

87% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with an 87% win rate bought No at 86¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible sharp-follow signal despite only one detection source.

  • This bettor wins 87% of their trades across 150 resolved markets and is up about $190k
  • They have placed $5.7M across 106 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought No at 86¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, backing the view that military action is still unlikely despite recent volatility

$6,029 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf99f...8742 Outcome 12725228, $24,620 (24% win rate)
  2. 0x1b2c...f03f Outcome 12725228, $10,792
  3. 0x79d8...5f64 Outcome 12725228, $9,058
  4. 0xcd95...8c17 Outcome 12725228, $6,337
  5. 0x8df9...468c Outcome 12725228, $5,000
  6. 0xa0bc...d428 Outcome 12725228, $3,420
  7. 0x5824...69a9 Outcome 12725228, $2,000
  8. 0x2005...e414 Outcome 12725228, $1,526
  9. 0x64db...89bb Outcome 12725228, $1,497
  10. 0x99aa...522a Outcome 12725228, $1,458

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Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

ResolvedGulf State military action against Iran by...?$6,029 tracked1 signalIsrael x IranOilU.S. x IranUAEIran Offensive StrikesKuwaitMilitary StrikesBahrainGeopoliticsIranMiddle EastRegional SpilloverOmansaudi arabiaqatarstrike

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Notable Trades

Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

45d ago

$6,029 on No at 86¢

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