Part of: U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,302.

Categories: Politics, mencho, Mexico, Mexico Cartel War, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering Yes on a high-momentum political/security market after previously catching a much lower Yes entry.

  • This bettor has 1,035 resolved trades, a 66% hit rate, and is up about $282K lifetime.
  • They previously bought Yes around 47¢ and are now re-entering at 87¢ after a major move.
  • Yes is up 65 percentage points in the past day, suggesting strong momentum behind the trade.

$2,302 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x450c...416f Outcome 10225921, $1,030,730 (0% win rate)
  2. 0xbc8c...273f Outcome 10225921, $494,680 (79% win rate)
  3. 0x5e71...ba82 Outcome 10225921, $115,780
  4. 0x7c59...f97c Outcome 10225921, $101,000
  5. 0x6b55...b1ce Outcome 10225921, $100,000
  6. 0x3e0d...4621 Outcome 10225921, $76,270
  7. 0x22f4...8eda Outcome 10225921, $52,825
  8. 0x94b9...d641 Outcome 10225921, $43,000
  9. 0x5b63...11a4 Outcome 10225921, $23,700 (69% win rate)
  10. 0xa0b6...20fe Outcome 10225921, $13,810

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Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

ResolvedU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...? $2,302 tracked1 signalPoliticsmenchoMexicoMexico Cartel WarGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

45d ago

$2,302 on Yes at 87¢

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