Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,302.

Categories: Politics, mencho, Mexico, Mexico Cartel War, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering Yes on a high-momentum political/security market after previously catching a much lower Yes entry.

  • This bettor has 1,035 resolved trades, a 66% hit rate, and is up about $282K lifetime.
  • They previously bought Yes around 47¢ and are now re-entering at 87¢ after a major move.
  • Yes is up 65 percentage points in the past day, suggesting strong momentum behind the trade.

$2,302 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Top Holders

  1. 0x2779...239a No, $29,825 (58% win rate)
  2. 0xaf23...aa95 Yes, $11,220 (56% win rate)
  3. 0x4773...2289 Yes, $10,422 (91% win rate)
  4. 0x614d...1546 Yes, $10,000 (66% win rate)
  5. 0x2c55...dbb9 No, $8,775 (54% win rate)
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $8,632 (47% win rate)
  7. 0x9453...1a48 Yes, $7,884 (53% win rate)
  8. 0x47ae...ee94 No, $5,628 (70% win rate)
  9. 0x1008...6a65 No, $5,560
  10. 0xae7c...487e Yes, $4,957 (87% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

Resolved$2,302 tracked1 signalPoliticsmenchoMexicoMexico Cartel WarGeopolitics
Yes
85¢
No
15¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Yes
90¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

2h ago

$2,302 on Yes at 87¢

87¢85¢2¢

Related Theses