Part of: Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,203.
Categories: Colombia, Elections, Politics, Global Elections, rewards 200, 4.5, 20 Deprec
Notable Trades
96% winner buying No
Sharp, highly profitable wallet with a 96% resolved win rate bought No on this Colombian election margin market, backed by a strong serial cross-market track record.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $266k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 63 events with a 96% win rate.
- Buying No at 76¢ suggests strong confidence this exact 0-5% margin outcome is overpriced.
$1,287 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader bought No, making this worth surfacing despite only moderate alert severity.
- This bettor wins 69% of resolved trades and is up $876K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 196 markets and $1.45M in flagged event trades.
- Entry at 75¢ shows confidence that this exact 0-5% victory-margin scenario will not happen.
$2,916 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 44256811, $37,924
- 0xe8c4...395d — Outcome 44256811, $1,944 (95% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 44256811, $1,149
- 0x03d9...e693 — Outcome 44256811, $450
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 44256811, $427 (72% win rate)
- 0x1cdd...e595 — Outcome 44256811, $150
- 0x3825...04e8 — Outcome 44256811, $120
- 0x853a...a20e — Outcome 44256811, $111
- 0xa204...bf99 — Outcome 44256811, $100 (0% win rate)
- 0x92aa...0341 — Outcome 44256811, $60
Related Theses
Kiros wins Democratic nomination
Covers 2 related markets
Peru elects right-wing president
Covers 3 related markets
Chong Won-oh wins Seoul mayor
Covers 2 related markets
Iran talks happen in June
Covers 8 related markets
England advances after high-scoring draw
Covers 6 related markets
USA Colombia advance, Brazil out
Covers 8 related markets
Mbappe wins Golden Boot
Covers 1 related market
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 3 related markets
Zhu Kangjie beats Rodrigo Vera
Covers 1 related market
