Part of: Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?
The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,203.
Categories: Colombia, Elections, Politics, Global Elections, rewards 200, 4.5, 20 Deprec
Notable Trades
96% winner buying No
Sharp, highly profitable wallet with a 96% resolved win rate bought No on this Colombian election margin market, backed by a strong serial cross-market track record.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $266k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 63 events with a 96% win rate.
- Buying No at 76¢ suggests strong confidence this exact 0-5% margin outcome is overpriced.
$1,287 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader bought No, making this worth surfacing despite only moderate alert severity.
- This bettor wins 69% of resolved trades and is up $876K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 196 markets and $1.45M in flagged event trades.
- Entry at 75¢ shows confidence that this exact 0-5% victory-margin scenario will not happen.
$2,916 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
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