Part of: Makerfield by-election Winner
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
This prediction market tracks whether Andy Burnham will win the expected 2026 Makerfield parliamentary by-election in the UK, following Josh Simons' announced resignation. The market resolves based on the officially reported winning candidate, or to “Other” if results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,615 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including recent whale and contrarian wallet moves around the Yes side.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $56,484.
Categories: Politics, Main Elections, Global Elections, UK Elections, UK, Main Election, Elections, Starmer, Makerfield
Notable Trades
92% winner backing Yes
Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is adding Yes exposure despite already-high odds.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $75K lifetime.
- They have $12.9K positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Entry at 88¢ is high, but the market has moved 7 points today with tight liquidity.
$1,615 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
92% winner backing Yes
Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is adding Yes exposure despite already-high odds.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $75K lifetime.
- They have $12.9K positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Entry at 88¢ is high, but the market has moved 7 points today with tight liquidity.
$1,624 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
79% win-rate serial trader
Surfaced because this is a highly experienced cross-market bettor with a 79% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L buying Yes.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades, with 702 wins across 885 markets.
- They are a seasoned cross-market trader, active across 395 events with $2.65M tracked volume.
- They bought Yes at 79¢ in a liquid market, adding to recent upward momentum.
$7,702 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
79% win-rate serial trader
Surfaced because this is a highly experienced cross-market bettor with a 79% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L buying Yes.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades, with 702 wins across 885 markets.
- They are a seasoned cross-market trader, active across 395 events with $2.65M tracked volume.
- They bought Yes at 79¢ in a liquid market, adding to recent upward momentum.
$3,254 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp funded cluster fades favorite
A profitable 96% win-rate wallet from a recurring 5-wallet funded cluster is fading the favorite, aligning with recent negative price momentum.
- This bettor has won 73 of 76 resolved bets and is profitable lifetime.
- The trade comes from a 5-wallet funded cluster with about $14.8k positioned across runs.
- They are fading the 74¢ favorite after an 11-point weekly drop, effectively buying No at 27¢.
$9,065 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
New whale fading favorite
A 6-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large political bets and is adding a $6.4k No position as the market moves against the favorite.
- This 6-day-old wallet has now been flagged 26 times with $71.5k in large bets.
- They are buying No at 28¢ while the favorite has fallen 12 points over the past week.
- The bet is meaningful but not market-moving, with $132.6k liquidity and a tight 1¢ spread.
$6,391 on No
New whale caught 28¢ Yes
A very new repeat whale bought $16k of Yes at 28¢ before a sharp move to 72¢, with a 47x volume spike and partial hedging afterward.
- A 6-day-old wallet has now made 26 flagged large bets, totaling $71.5k.
- It bought $16.0k of Yes at 28¢ before the market jumped to 72¢.
- It later bought $6.4k of No at 28¢, likely locking in part of the move.
$22,397 on Yes
Proven sharp re-entering YES
Sharp political bettor with an 81% win rate and +$723k lifetime P&L is re-entering Yes on Burnham despite only a modest $2k size.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $723k lifetime.
- They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying back in at 75¢.
- Market volume is running 18.8x above its historical average, adding momentum to the trade.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Fresh contrarian wallet
Very fresh wallet is making repeat contrarian No bets against an 82% favorite in a political market, but with no resolved track record yet.
- A brand-new wallet is taking the unpopular No side at 19¢ against an 82% favorite.
- This wallet is only 34 minutes old and has already triggered repeat large-bet alerts totaling $3.3k.
- The market has real liquidity, so this looks more like a targeted political view than a random thin-market punt.
$1,395 on No
86% serial cross-market sharp
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate is taking the No side on this political market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $356,950 lifetime.
- They have traded across 35 events and 73 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 36¢ is a contrarian position against Burnham as the 64¢ favorite.
$1,042 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 68040636, $866,671
- 0x1e05...11d6 — Outcome 68040636, $56,240
- 0x7dc1...0a86 — Outcome 68040636, $21,274
- 0x17a7...470e — Outcome 68040636, $10,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x85b8...6b6a — Outcome 68040636, $10,000 (66% win rate)
- 0x1d13...3c2f — Outcome 68040636, $8,212 (81% win rate)
- 0x4df3...788f — Outcome 68040636, $7,095 (70% win rate)
- 0x16cb...2704 — Outcome 68040636, $5,961 (75% win rate)
- 0xe8c2...3048 — Outcome 68040636, $4,120 (91% win rate)
- 0x1c12...79d9 — Outcome 68040636, $3,625 (17% win rate)
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